House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., met with House Republicans at a Florida conference this week, and he gave a bombshell interview with The Washington Times.
“We will win the majority,” McCarthy predicted. “I believe I will be speaker.”
McCarthy seems to have been reading the polls.
The GOP is favored to retake the House in November’s midterm elections. As of this month, congressional Republicans are polling ahead of congressional Democrats on the generic ballot, according to most polls in the RealClearPolitics poll average.
However, McCarthy faces a difficult path to the speakership.
One Republican representative, remaining anonymous, told The New York Times last month that McCarthy may have dimmed his prospects by denying the results of the last presidential election and pandering to the Trump loyalists in his caucus.
McCarthy also seems to have alienated certain Trump staffers. This year McCarthy advised Trump to avoid endorsing anybody in Rep. Rodney Davis’s primary campaign against Rep. Mary Miller, the Times reported. Trump endorsed Miller anyway.
And McCarthy called for the House to censure Trump after the Capitol riot.
“Current and former aides to Mr. Trump describe Mr. McCarthy’s relationship with the former president as cordial but lacking in any loyalty,” the Times reported.
It remains unclear whether McCarthy will become speaker despite all this baggage. Minority leaders can be elected with a majority from their own parties, but the House speaker needs a majority from the entire House.
Plus, the Republicans look less likely to retake the Senate. 21 Senate Republicans are up for re-election during this cycle, compared to 14 Senate Democrats. Five Republicans have announced retirement from the Senate, compared to only one Democrat. In other words, Republicans are on the defensive in the upper chamber, despite being the minority party.
Still, McCarthy can explain most of his optimism just by pointing to the polls.
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The Horn editorial team