“On the Holmes Front” with Frank Holmes
Just over one year after a rough presidential election, Democrats have come to think they’re unbeatable.
Liberals have so much confidence they will retake the House—and possibly the Senate—that they’re already looking past next year’s midterms to the 2028 presidential election…and a new poll has made them think they’ve found the one candidate who can put them back in the White House.
Their dream candidate is none other than Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D.-N.Y.
The party’s left-wing leadership, including AOC herself, have highlighted the latest survey, posted online by Interactive Polls, which shows the ex-bartender defeating Republican Vice President J.D. Vance by two points in a hypothetical showdown.
AOC reposted the poll on her social media accounts Tuesday with her usual thought and eloquence.
“Bloop!” read her entire accompanying message.
Bloop! https://t.co/By2kl8LnWY
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) December 17, 2025
That evening, left-wing “journalist” Pablo Manriquez, who edits the Migrant Insider, caught up with her as she departed the Capitol to ask her about the jarring results.
“These polls like three years out—they are what they are,” she told him. “But let the record show: I would stomp him! I would stomp him!”
Republicans immediately shot down her Bronx bragging.
“Vance would wipe the FLOOR with AOC. She’s deluded,” said conservative commentator Eric Daugherty.
“I do think the Democrats are a little bit high on their own supply at the moment,” Dana Perino told her fellow panelists on The Five.
But before Democrats roll out the red carpet for the New York socialist, critics pointed out several problems with the poll.
First of all, the Argument/Verasight poll of 1,521 registered voters, taken between December 5 and 11, showed Ocasio-Cortez beating Vance with 51 percent of the vote to his 49 percent. That’s a razor-thin victory, even three years out.
But there are deeper problems—much, much deeper.
For one thing, The Argument isn’t a polling firm at all.
AOC to @PabloReports on the recent poll showing her beating Vance. She rolls her eyes at such early polls but adds: “Let the record show, I would stomp him” pic.twitter.com/Mt7tBK3Nze
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) December 18, 2025
“It’s a D.C.-based media company” that says, “We make a positive, combative case for liberalism,” said Megyn Kelly on her podcast. “This is not an objective poll.”
Digging a little deeper, the poll has a long history of getting election results dead wrong.
“This ridiculous pollster also had Kamala beating Trump in 2024,” pointed out Fox News media critic Joe Concha.
A Verasight poll in late October claimed 55 percent of Americans thought Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump in the 2024 election. She actually lost every swing state.
And even if this poll were to be accurate, “at 51-49, Vance wins the Electoral College”—the vote that actually determines the presidential election—said Concha.
And there’s one more problem with the poll itself—or rather, the group that posted the poll to the social media platform X.
The “about this account” tab “account based in Canada.”
Isn’t that foreign election interference?
Then there’s the fact that the poll is an outlier. Data from better-grounded pollsters show J.D. Vance, well, stomping AOC.
The political betting website Polymarket, which lets people wager on who will win a political race, shows Vance with 31 percent of the ante vs. just eight percent for Ocasio-Cortez. (He also has nearly twice the support of California Governor Gavin Newsom.)
AOC has been jetting around the country on the “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. The two Northeastern ultra-leftists have become quite chummy while living the high life together. As The Horn reported, the duo “spent $221,723 on private jets in the first three months of 2025 so (they) could rip on Elon Musk’s greed.”
AOC has done everything she can to present herself as the two-time presidential candidate’s natural successor—but there are reasons to believe she, like Sanders, won’t win the Democratic Party’s presidential nod.
For one thing, Newsom leads in the most recent poll, leading Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez by nine percentage points in the Yale Youth Poll, released Monday.
AOC doesn’t even rank second: She comes in third, two points behind former Vice President Kamala Harris…and barely two points ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
And Democrats are considering changing the way primary voters cast their ballots—which they didn’t do at all for nominee Kamala Harris last summer—by instituting ranked-choice voting.
Even if she wins, she may not face off against the vice president. Vance, too, will have company in the 2028 Republican primary.
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Trump’s runner-up in the 2016 GOP primaries, has signaled that he’ll be running for president in 2028 by picking a fight with podcaster Tucker Carlson.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also appears to be positioning himself for a second presidential bid through taking antagonistic positions against President Donald Trump.
Unfortunately for them, a new Emerson College poll released last week shows Vance winning a solid 54 percent of Republican primary voters. DeSantis wins only two percent of the GOP vote.
It also shows AOC with three percent of Democrats’ support, compared to Kamala Harris’ 37 percent.
Vance won’t have to “wipe the floor” with AOC; even the unelected 2024 nominee, who wasted a billion dollars on a hopeless campaign, would “stomp her.”