The shouldn’t you shouldn’t rest on your laurels.
But it appears Democrats in New Jersey didn’t get that memo as new polling data has emerged that shows voters in the Garden State who once always aligned with the Democratic Party have suddenly flipped — and it could have major implications on 2028 (and beyond).
Earlier this week, it was reported that New Jersey, once considered a proverbial lock for the Democratic Party, is now seeing registered New Jersey Republicans returning their mail-in ballots at a higher clip than Democrats.
This trend is an early positive sign for GOP gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, who is now locked in a continuing tightening race between him and Rep. Mikie Sherrill for governor.
But things for Sherrill, and other New Jersey Democrats, are looking worse than originally imagined.
According to a shocking report from The New York Post, Sherrill is struggling to maintain support from black voters, a crucial group who could determine the next leader of the longtime Democratic state.
According to a recent Quantus Insights poll,15% of black voters were still undecided in the high-stakes governor’s race, which noted she was underperforming with the core bloc that is typically loyal to Democrats and has been critical to Democratic victories in past cycles.
For instance in Newark, where nearly half of the population is black and less than one-quarter is white, many residents didn’t even know who she was or seemed too disillusioned by politics to vote, according to the report.
“Who’s running? I don’t even know who’s running?” Yanissa Gaskin, 32, a paraprofessional at an elementary school in Newark, told The Post.
“You start to lose hope with Democrats. That is who we are for,” Gaskin also quipped.
The news for Democrats gets worse.
Sonia Wolfrey, who lives in Newark and works in a cafe in nearby Irvington, another predominantly black city, said that it “doesn’t matter” whom they vote for because no politicians care about them.
“Newark, Irvington and parts of East Orange are forgotten about and they need to think about that when you’re begging for votes from these people in this town. You’re not addressing our issues,” Wolfrey said.
“Both sides are f—k-ups to me,” she added, saying that she isn’t squarely in either the Democratic or Republican camp.
Chris Green, 55, an Irvington resident and father of one, noted he is “still on the fence about” how he will vote in the governor’s race.
“It’s the same old thing,” he explained. “A lot of people are just tired. They’re just tired of politics.”
Sherrill’s campaign is downplaying concerns about a potential softening of support from black voters, and insists that it’s not taking anything or anyone for granted.
The campaign touted Sherrill’s partnerships with black communities, proposal to expand first-time homebuyer assistance programs, and plan to declare a state of emergency on energy costs, according to The Post.
“A Sherrill-Caldwell administration will give black New Jerseyans meaningful representation and ensure Trenton serves everyone,” Sherrill campaign spokesperson Sean Higgins told The Post.
Oscar James II, who served on the Newark City Council from 2006 to 2010, said Sherrill’s message just isn’t resonating with black voters.
James penned an op-ed in August titled, “I’m a Black NJ Democrat. This is why I can’t support Mikie Sherrill for governor.”
“Especially in the black community that I’ve seen her with, she goes in with the politicians and the Democratic and the Democratic chairs,” James explained to The Post.
“But everybody who the working people who are in these African American communities, in these black communities, they’re not at those events. They’re not the people showing up there. The everyday voters aren’t the ones.”
However, what is happening in New Jersey could be a trend starting to happen nationwide.
Henry De Koninck, a Democratic campaign ad strategist, observed there is a “nationwide realignment” happening.
“There’s really a nationwide realignment going on in terms of the percentage of support that Democrats are seeing from working-class and blue-collar voters, and particularly Hispanic and even African American voters,” he told The Post.
“What that does is it just changes the math,” De Koninck explained.
“That means that Mikie Sherrill’s team will have to do better in more traditionally Republican areas like Morris County and Somerset County and Hunterdon County, and I think she has the profile and is running the kind of campaign to do that.”