New Jersey, once considered a proverbial lock for the Democratic Party, is now shifting away from its deep blue roots towards Republican red — and longtime Democrats are very worried that the future of their party will look like in the Garden State.
According to new data compiled and analyzed by DecisionDeskHQ’s director of political science, registered New Jersey Republicans are returning their mail-in ballots at a higher clip than Democrats.
Why does this matter?
Insiders say this is an early positive sign for GOP gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, who is now locked in a continuing tightening race between him and Rep. Mikie Sherrill for governor.
According to the data, New Jersey Republicans have so far notched an 18.61% return rate for their mail-in ballots, outpacing the Democrats’ 16.55%.
The New Jersey Vote By Mail file is in for 10/03.
Republicans inched their return rate lead up by six basis points yesterday, while Democrats picked up more than 11,000 raw votes.
🔴Republican Return Rate – 18.61%
🔵Democratic Return Rate – 16.55%
🔵DEM Raw Vote Edge – 53,319… pic.twitter.com/XSqYJgOwu5— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 3, 2025
GOP pollster Adam Geller, who has worked with the Ciattarelli campaign, told The New York Post that Republicans have historically been less inclined to vote by mail.
But this new trend could mean this lead in the rate of early ballot returns could be a hopeful sign.
“Clearly, it’s encouraging for the Republicans right now,” Geller said.
“You could argue that, in addition to coming around to vote by mail, it could be a measurement of the enthusiasm for the candidate.”
Brent Buchanan, the president and CEO of Cygnal polling firm, said that the early mail-in data is interesting given President Trump’s growing popularity in the Garden State.
“Republicans have gotten serious about participating in early voting,” Buchanan told The New York Post.
“Pair that with the strong shift statewide toward Trump, and you have a growing recipe for Republican wins up and down the ticket.”
Despite the favorable early numbers, pollsters cautioned against reading too much into early data.
“The problem with voting by mail is that you don’t know from one day to the next what you’re going to get. Which counties may be lagging behind and may suddenly produce lots and lots of ballots,” Geller said.
Dave Wasserman, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that it is still too early to determine what the electorate will look like.
“It may be that Democrats return their ballots later,” he noted.
Wasserman added that the GOP appeared “energized for change” after eight years of Democratic control of the Garden State’s government — but said the race will likely come down to independent voters no matter what in a state where Democrats dramatically outnumber Republicans, 2,391,043 to 1,568,949, with 2,161,088 Independents, according to data compiled by the Independent Voter Project.
However, Kamala Harris only won New Jersey by a 6% margin in the 2024 presidential election.
This marked the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1992, according to the New Jersey Globe.
President Trump is now also polling better than outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, according to a recent survey by Emerson College.