George Santayana once said,
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
Nowhere is this more true than the stock market. Take this week’s latest political football, the so-called “Schumer Shutdown” that Republicans are blaming on Democrats.
On its face, a frightful-sounding event for those with money invested in the stock market. Kalshi’s prediction market bettors anticipate that the shutdown will last roughly 12 days.
Source: Kalshi
In those 12 days, could your money evaporate? Probably not. Historically, the stock market is no more likely to underperform than during periods where the government is open for business. Still, that hasn’t stopped headlines from what they always do: Shamelessly fearmongering for a click.
Source: NYT, Barron’s, Google News
“This time it’s different,” says Barron’s. “Is this time different? […] There’s a risk now that a political confrontation could derail the [stock market].” Says the New York Times. Elsewhere on the various 4-letter-networks-of-finance, guests are being brought on left and right with supposed high financial knowledge to tell viewers that this catalyst could really sink stocks – especially given how irrationally exuberant we are right now…
Except, none of that is true.
In the stock market, if you understand one thing, understand this: history repeats. Over and over, those who understand history will be better investors, and those who don’t will be doomed to repeat the mistakes of the many fearful investors who came before them.
Historical Data on Shutdowns and Stocks
When in doubt, look to the facts. Historical analysis shows government shutdowns have minimal impact on the S&P 500. Since 1976, there have been over 20 shutdowns, averaging 8 days each. The average S&P 500 return during these periods is nearly flat, averaging literally 0%:
Source: Bloomberg, Truist
Even during longer government shutdowns, like the record 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, the S&P 500 ultimately rose 10%. Post-shutdown, the index gained an average of 1.2% in one month and 2.9% in three months. (Sourced from LPL Financial, Vanguard, and Business Insider analyses.) But is this time different? Could this be the last straw for an exuberant market?
The “Exuberant” Market Myth
The supposed “highly exuberant” market that we face currently is a myth being sold to you by two types of people:
- People who do not understand how bull markets work,
- People who do understand, and would prefer that the collective individual investors of the public sell so that they can get a better price
At Market Rebellion, we spend much of our day paying close attention to what the largest institutions in the world are buying and selling – the timely, “here and now bets” made in the backrooms of Wall Street. That’s because what Wall Street is saying with their mouth is often the exact opposite of what they are saying with their wallet. We aren’t seeing, at least as of right now, any major “smart money” selling taking place. Counterintuitively, when we look right now, our unusual options activity experts are seeing long-term buying at every modest pullback.
Why would Wall Street be so bullish on the backend if we’re in an exuberant stock market frenzy that’s doomed to collapse? Perhaps because we’re in the early period of President Donald Trump’s second candidacy, someone who knows and understands business, and isn’t going to let the economy falter. As of right now, the hard data shows the economy is actually doing far better than anyone in the mainstream media told you it would be doing: The Atlanta Fed currently projects Q3 GDP at 3.9%.
And on the point of market exuberance, it’s worth noting that this is actually an extremely average bull market relative to history, despite what the headlines keep telling you. We’ve been writing about this for years.
An average bull market (not even an exuberant market, an average bull market) lasts 59 months and results in gains of roughly 169%. As of October 2025, this bull market (starting from the October 2022 low) has lasted 36 months with gains of approximately 87%, putting it near the halfway point of an average bull, doing exactly what history predicts: repeating itself.
Expert Take: Najarian Brothers on Rebel’s Edge
Take a listen to Jon and Pete Najarian on this intro of the Rebel’s Edge, where they clearly outline what the government shutdown means for stocks.
“Let’s be honest: These guys have to play up crap just to get their news stories out there.”
They mock the media hype, noting no volatility spike and the market actually rising despite headlines.
So what should you do? If you do one thing with your money during this government shutdown, history says it should be nothing at all. That’s what has made investors of the past the most money: Ignoring history’s repetitive headlines surrounding the potential dangers of a government shutdown, and remaining invested anyway. In other words, when it comes to our money, let’s put facts over fear.
Level up your trading with the pros from Market Rebellion! Unlock trade ideas, education, and the tools you need today.
