In less than three weeks, Americans will decide the fate of every member of the House — and potentially flip the chamber to the GOP.
But despite polls swinging quickly in favor of the Republican Party, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has remained shallowly optimistic about her party’s political future. She went so far as to “dismiss” the polls during an interview on MSNBC.
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MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell asked Pelosi about “inflation concerns, along with crime, giving new momentum to Republicans.”
“After the Supreme Court ruling [overturning Roe v. Wade], there was huge outrage. That has seemed to subside, at least among overriding concerns,” Mitchell said. “So why do you think the president hasn’t gotten this message through to the voters?”
Pelosi dismissed the premise of the question and stumbled to give a partial answer.
“First of all, let me say that much of what you said, I don’t agree with,” the House speaker said. “That is to say, The New York Times poll, I think, is an outlier poll. You cite one poll, but all the others –”
Mitchell interrupted, “It’s also the RealClearPolitics average. It’s showing similar issues.”
“But that was the one that brought down the average, and it was an outlier,” Pelosi said. “It wasn’t even that big a sample. So I dismiss that.”
Take a look —
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) October 18, 2022
On September 20, the congressional Democrats boasted a 1.3-point lead on the generic ballot, according to an aggregate of 10 polls of likely voters. One month later, the Republicans are enjoying a 2.2-point lead according to the same surveys.
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In other words, the Democrats have found themselves on the losing end of a 2.9-point swing, RealClearPolitics found.
The Times poll found the Republicans with a four-point lead with a three-or-four-point swing from the month before… only slightly above the average and median polls.
Of the ten polls reviewed by RCP, three looked even bleaker for the Democrats. For example, Pollsters at Rasmussen put the Republicans seven points ahead.
Yet, Pelosi decided that she knew better than the polls, which critics claim are skewed in favor of Democrats to begin with.
“Since Congress adjourned, I’ve been in an average of five states a week, and I can tell you that women’s concerns about their freedom are very, very much still very significant in terms of how they will vote,” Pelosi said.
“In fact, 80 percent of people who care about a women’s right to choose say… say that will determine who they’ll vote for.”
Pelosi neglected to provide the source of the “80 percent” figure… or answer Mitchell’s original question about President Joe Biden’s messaging.
Instead, Pelosi talked about fundraising and turnout.
“Washington has always been, ‘The Republicans are going to win; there’s no question,’ for a year and a half… That has diminished in terms of that certainty, and there is a real race on… It’s a matter of who turns out to vote,” Pelosi said.
“There are issues. Of course, we want to fight inflation. It’s a global issue, but some of the inflation in our country sprang from the fact that this president created… at least nine million jobs working with the private sector.”
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Pelosi has frequently issued flat denials of polling trends for this entire midterm cycle. Earlier this month, she infamously told talk show host Stephen Colbert, “I believe that we will hold the House, and we will hold the House by winning more seats.”
“I believe that we will hold the House.” — @SpeakerPelosi on the midterm elections
— The Late Show (@colbertlateshow) October 3, 2022