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Trump’s controversial “big, beautiful bill” could fail

May 16, 2025 By: Stephen Dietrich

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President Donald Trump’s comprehensive legislative package faces a precarious vote in the House Budget Committee on Friday, with at least three Republican committee members publicly stating they will vote against the multitrillion-dollar bill in its current form.

Hard-liner conservative Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Chip Roy of Texas have all indicated they will oppose the measure, which addresses tax cuts, border security, immigration, defense spending, energy policy, and the debt limit.

Rep. Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma has also expressed opposition, raising serious doubts about whether the legislation can advance.

“I’m a NO on advancing the budget reconciliation bill out of the Budget Committee in its current form,” Clyde told Fox News Digital. “I’m actively involved in negotiations to improve this package, and I’m hopeful that we will do so quickly in order to successfully deliver on President Trump’s agenda for the American people.”

Roy also went on Fox News to blast the bill —

Washington Republicans are addicted to spending. They don't actually want @DOGE cuts. They don't want the swamp drained.

They want — they NEED — the grift to continue. Don't turn away. https://t.co/O2B2qC0KuD

— The Horn News (@ReadTheHornNews) May 16, 2025

With one expected Republican absence on the committee and a narrow GOP majority, Republican leaders can only afford one “no” vote to still move the legislation forward.

The conservative holdouts are particularly concerned about spending cuts they view as way too small, including the timeline for implementing Medicaid work requirements and phasing out green energy tax credits established under the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act.

“Right now, the House proposal fails to meet the moment. It does not meaningfully change spending (Medicaid expansion to able bodied, [Inflation Reduction Act] subsidies). Plus many of the decent provisions and cuts, don’t begin until 2029 and beyond. That is swamp accounting to dodge real savings,” Roy wrote Thursday.

A meeting with the Congressional Budget Office chief on Thursday further complicated matters, as hard-liners were upset to learn that cost estimates for the Energy and Commerce Committee’s portion of the bill won’t be ready until early next week. This leaves significant questions about the actual savings contained in the proposed Medicaid overhaul.

“I questioned the timing on work requirements, I questioned the IRS phase-outs. I didn’t get an answer on that,” Norman told reporters after a Thursday afternoon meeting. “My point is, we need to have answers before it hits the floor.”

Conservatives have also raised concerns that changes in state program funding for Medicaid could actually incentivize non-expansion states to broaden their Medicaid programs, a possibility the CBO reportedly acknowledged.

When asked if Friday’s vote would proceed as scheduled, House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington of Texas offered a weak response: “We’ll see.”

Despite these challenges, Speaker Mike Johnson of Lousiana has expressed confidence that the measure will move forward according to plan. “I think we’re on schedule,” Johnson said after a meeting on the bill Thursday afternoon. “I’m talking to everybody and I think we’re gonna get this thing done on the schedule that we proposed.”

Johnson has set Memorial Day as the target for passing the legislation through the House. After clearing the Budget Committee, the bill must go to the House Rules Committee before reaching the full House for a vote.

Another contentious issue involves state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which primarily affect high-cost-of-living states and Republicans representing critical swing districts in blue states. The bill would raise the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $30,000, but moderate Republicans say this increase is not engh.

“SALT is a pay-for,” argued Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, noting that SALT deduction caps would be eliminated entirely if Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is allowed to expire. “The fact is, if the tax bill expires, the cap on SALT expires, which means it goes back to unlimited. So any cap is a savings within the bill.”

Congressional Republicans are advancing Trump’s agenda through the budget reconciliation process, which lowers the Senate’s threshold for passage to a simple majority, which would allow them to pass the legislation without any Democratic support.

If the Budget Committee approves the package, it will proceed to the Senate, which will likely amend the bill before sending it back to the House for final approval and ultimately to President Donald Trump’s desk for signature.

About the Author

Stephen Dietrich

Stephen is a U.S. Army veteran with over a decade of combined experience in political commentary, economics, and news.

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