The United States and China are expected to dominate the medal standings at the upcoming Paris Olympics, which are set to begin in just 100 days. According to a forecast by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, a company that provides statistical analysis for sports leagues worldwide, the United States is projected to win a total of 123 medals, including 39 golds. China is expected to come in second place, with 35 gold medals and 89 medals overall. This would mirror the results of the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics three years ago, where the two countries also finished 1-2 in both categories.
Gracenote’s rankings are based on the total number of medals won, although some other rankings focus specifically on gold medals. If the predictions hold true, this would mark the eighth consecutive time that the United States has won the most overall medals in the Summer Games. The last time the U.S. did not top the gold medal count was in 2008, when China invested heavily in its athletes and saw significant success.
Following the United States and China, the next countries in the projected overall medal standings are: Britain (66 medals, 13 gold), France (55 medals, 28 gold), Australia (50 medals, 13 gold), Japan (49 medals, 13 gold), Italy (47 medals, 12 gold), Netherlands (38 medals, 18 gold), Germany (36 medals, 9 gold), and South Korea (24 medals, 9 gold).
Host nations typically see a boost in their medal counts, and France is expected to benefit greatly from this advantage. The country is forecast to nearly triple its gold medal output from the Tokyo Olympics and significantly increase its overall medal count from 33. This boost can be attributed to increased investment in athlete training and the support of enthusiastic home crowds. Additionally, France will be competing in 25 different sports in Paris, a significant increase from its average of 15 to 19 sports in recent Olympics.
One unknown factor in the medal predictions is the presence of Russian and Belarusian athletes, who have been largely absent from international competitions over the past two years due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. While their participation is expected to be limited, their influence on the medal standings remains difficult to predict accurately.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.