Get ready, California – the big one IS coming. There is a 99.9 percent chance of a magnitude-5 or greater earthquake striking within three years in the greater Los Angeles area, where a similar sized tremor caused more than $12 million in damage last year, according to a study by NASA and university researchers.
The study released Tuesday was based on Global Positioning System and airborne radar measurements of how the Earth’s crust was deformed by the magnitude-5.1 quake on March 28, 2014, in La Habra, about 20 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles. The damage included broken water mains and cracked pavement.
By comparison, in 1994 the magnitude-6.7 Northridge earthquake left $25 billion in damage, caused dozens of deaths and injured 9,000 people.
The study looked at a 62-mile radius around the La Habra epicenter. Researchers observed shallow movements of the ground, took into account a deficit in the number of earthquakes expected there and calculated how much strain may remain in deeper faults that are still locked.
While the magnitude-5 quake was found to be extremely likely by April 1, 2018, one of magnitude-6 or higher was pegged at just 35 percent and the largest potential quake was estimated at 6.3.
Study leader Andrea Donnellan, a geophysicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said the research is not a prediction. “It’s a statistical probability that we computed,” she said in an interview.
The U.S. Geological Survey took issue with the study, asserting that it was unclear how the study derived its numbers and that the accepted probability is 85 percent.
Responding to the criticism, Donnellan said the study’s references to other scientific papers would allow other researchers to reconstruct the process.
According to the most recent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, which was published in March and is the basis for the agency’s National Seismic Hazard Maps, the Southern California region has a 100 percent chance of one or more magnitude-5 or larger quakes and a 93 percent chance of a 6.7 jolt during the next 30 years.
Thousands of older wood and concrete apartment buildings vulnerable to collapse in a major earthquake would get costly upgrades under sweeping retrofitting rules passed this month by the Los Angeles City Council.
Also participating in the NASA-led study were researchers from the University of California, Irvine; Indiana University, Bloomington; UC Davis; and the University of Nevada, Reno.
The Associated Press contributed to this article
I live in an earthquake zone. We keep hearing that a big one is going to hit in the next 30-50 years. The great thing about that sort of prediction is that timespan always remains as the years and decades roll by. Sooner or later a big earthquake will hit. That doesn’t mean the forecasters were right. It simply means that eventually the earth moved.
If the big one hits in California within the three year window, much will be made of the prediction. As we approach the deadline for the earthquake it is likely this specific prediction will be mentioned less and less. If no earthquake happens the prediction will be forgotten and the guessers will have moved on to a new prediction to scare the public.
We need to get on our knees and pray to God almighty to move that earth quake
He that dwelleth in the secret place of the Most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty. (Psalm 181:1)
Our Father who created us did so that we might have joy. Yes, we need only occupy ourselves with being near to Him in prayer and the presence of His shadow will protect us from all harm.
When we as a nation return to being close to Him through prayers of the heart, His shadow shall abide over us. Chase Him away by ignoring him and his shadow recedes.
We never have had, nor ever will have anything to fear, for like little children we are comforted nurtured and protected according to the proximity of His presence.
Our prayers to our Father build our relationship with Him, and when we have built such a relationship with Him we will not fear…..anything.
Instead we will dwell in peace and Joy forever.
Your Brother October 22, 2015
I keep seeing these “Massivessive” earthquake predictions. This one comes closer than the 5.0 in another one I saw, but come on… 6.7 is big, but not massive. In 1972 I was in Taiwan. We had a 7.65 quake with 7.2, 6.9, and 6.5 (plus more smaller ones) aftershocks. It was scary, the shaking and the deep roar from the earth, but only 1 person was killed (freak accident) and no buildings came down. I lived on 3rd floor and nothing even fell over on our shelves! Now, I admit they know how to build for earthquakes, but in my personal experience I would say massive would be 8.5 or higher.