In February, 53 percent of conservative voters would have chosen Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over former President Donald Trump, according to last month’s Monmouth University poll about a hypothetical contest between these two candidates. By comparison, only 40 percent of them would have chosen Trump.
Now, only a month later, DeSantis has lost his lead.
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According to Monmouth’s poll from this month, only 46 percent of these voters would choose DeSantis, and 47 would choose Trump.
The pollsters were asking about an imaginary, two-way contest between Trump and DeSantis.
However, they also asked about a more plausible contest… and they uncovered some worse news for DeSantis.
“When asked who they would like to see as the Republican nominee for president in 2024, 41% name Trump and 27% name DeSantis,” the pollsters wrote. “The two were tied in February (33% each) while the December results showed a greater preference for the Florida governor (39%) than the former president (26%).”
Recently, DeSantis has caused controversy for characterizing the Russia-Ukraine War as a “territorial dispute.” He also earned some mockery for pretending not to know the word “sanctimonious.”
Meanwhile, Trump is dealing with his own set of long-running controversies, including a possible indictment in New York.
As of now, pollsters have yet to conduct any good surveys about public opinion on Trump’s looming indictment. For instance, Monmouth conducted its survey mostly before the headlines about the former president’s troubles in New York.
However, Trump saw his support harden in August, following the FBI’s raid on his home at Mar-a-Lago.
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The Monmouth poll sampled 521 registered voters between March 16 and 20. It surveyed only “voters who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party,” and it used a mix of telephone interviews and online questionnaires.
The pollsters weren’t confident. They estimated a 6.6-point margin of error, possibly due to the small sample.
One outlet ran a headline saying, “Trump is surging in 2024 polls ahead of a possible indictment: Monmouth University poll.”
We’ll see.
The Horn editorial team