Former President Donald Trump expects the Republican nomination to be his for the taking if he attempts a third run at the White House in 2024.
But one new poll shows it won’t be a cakewalk as he faces growing competition from a former protege.
The new poll of New Hampshire – the state that holds the nation’s all-important first primary – finds Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has moved ahead of Trump, 39 percent to 37 percent.
That’s within the poll’s margin of error, so it’s essentially a tie.
But it does show a potential battle brewing between the two, especially given that no other GOP hopeful came close.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was in a distant third place with just 9 percent, while Nikki Haley – former South Carolina governor, and ambassador to the United Nations under Trump – garnered 6 percent.
No one else got more than 1 percent in the poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which also finds that DeSantis polls better against Biden than Trump in a general election matchup in the state.
“Biden and Trump are increasingly unpopular in New Hampshire and only about half of members of each of their own parties want them to run for President in 2024,” the university said in a news release.
Trump has been reportedly growing disenchanted with DeSantis.
While many big names in the GOP have pledged not to run in 2024 if Trump does, DeSantis has made no such promise.
That stings Trump, who claims credit for turning a relatively unknown member of the House into Florida’s governor.
“I was very responsible for getting him elected,” the former president said on Newsmax this week, while insisting that he still has a good relationship with DeSantis.
But if Trump was responsible for getting DeSantis elected in 2018, the Florida governor is looking to prove he can win in 2022 without the former president’s help. He hasn’t asked for Trump’s endorsement in his campaign – and Politico reported that he’s not planning to ask for it, either, according to four unnamed sources.
He doesn’t seem to need it: RealClearPolitics shows DeSantis with a lead of 8.8 points over likely Democratic challenger, Rep. Charlie Crist, a previous governor of Florida (who was a Republican at the time).
Behind the scenes, DeSantis seems to be moving to consolidate donors not just for this November’s reelection campaign… but for 2024.
Politico reported this week that Friends of Ron DeSantis – a PAC aligned with the foreign governor – raised $3.4 million over this election cycle from 10 key Trump donors, including many who had never donated to a statewide election in Florida before.
“I think Ron’s fundraising really speaks for itself,” longtime GOP donor Francis Rooney and former Florida congressman told the website. “It is possible Trump’s percentage of the Republicans keeps going down and I think it’s possible people will start looking elsewhere.”
He said Trump would likely win a primary for president if it were held today.
“But I think his popularity is going down,” he added.
And that’s why that new poll is so important to DeSantis’ aspirations
The Granite State has a history of picking winners on the Republican side, choosing the eventual GOP nominee in the contested primaries of 2016 (Trump), 2012 (Mitt Romney), and 2008 (John McCain).
In fact, going back to 1952, New Hampshire only missed picking the eventual Republican winner three times.
If DeSantis continues to surge there, it could be a warning sign for Trump that the third time may not be a charm.
The Horn editorial team