by Frank Holmes, reporter
It’s no understatement to say that the 2024 presidential race, which usually doesn’t get into full blast until after Labor Day, is already in full gear—but which candidate is running in top gear? Although we’re still more than two months away from the 2024 presidential election, we already have strong evidence showing which presidential campaign’s strategy has been most successful.
In the short race to date, both Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Republican President Donald Trump have gone all-out to win over voters, pulling out all the stops on their way to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Last week, Harris publicly wrestled the Democratic nomination away from Joe Biden and put on a star-studded Democratic National Convention in Chicago to present herself as the candidate of “joy.”
No sooner had she left the stage than President Trump stomped on that momentum, as only he can: Harris claimed the Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday night, and the very next day, Trump announced he received the endorsement of former Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
It was a power struggle for dominance of the 2024 presidential election. Now, one week later, which of these two major moves paid off?
The results are in, and it doesn’t look good for the vice president.
The average candidate gets a bounce out of their party’s convention, anywhere from a few points to as many as 16 points for Bill Clinton in 1992.
Kamala Harris got nothing.
“Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points following the Democratic National Convention (48% to 44%), matching her standing before the weeklong confab in Chicago,” according to the polling firm Morning Consult.
The last time a candidate got zero bounce was George McGovern before his 49-state loss to Richard Nixon in 1972. (John Kerry actually lost a point after his 2004 convention, before losing the race to President George W. Bush.)
“While ratings data indicates more viewers tuned into the DNC than the RNC throughout each gathering, our survey suggests the extent to which these partisan confabs break through to the broader electorate is limited,” said pollsters.
The public only tuned in for speeches from Kamala and the Obamas—and evidently, voters weren’t impressed.
No bounce. Kamala is running a terrible campaign. Just terrible. https://t.co/UaqrVHDUf2
— John Ocasio-Rodham Nolte (@NolteNC) August 28, 2024
If that weren’t enough, a second poll—taken by The Economist and YouGov from August 25th through 27th—shows the race even closer than that. Kamala Harris reportedly leads President Trump by two points: 47 percent to 45 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein got one percent, and five percent of respondents remain undecided.
Voters were evenly divided on whether they would consider voting for Trump or Harris, about 50-50. And voters were equally likely to think Trump would win as Harris (37 percent for Trump vs. 36 percent for Harris).
One area stood would in the YouGov poll: Trump voters were nine points more likely to say they are voting for Donald Trump, instead of against his opponent. That implies more Harris voters are really just anti-Trump voters.
The rest of the poll has little good news for the Harris-Walz ticket, either. The top issues all favor Trump-Vance.
Voters say the economy is their top issue (97 percent), with substantial showings for inflation (96 percent), taxes (92 percent), crime (90 percent), and immigration (84 percent).
The Biden-Harris administration is underwater with voters on all of those issues—in the case of inflation by a whopping 28 points.
What about President Donald Trump? How did voters respond to the RFK Jr. endorsement in Phoenix?
It’s like night and day.
Trump received a bump where it really counts—in swing states.
Trump’s poll numbers rose by 1.25 points in Arizona, just over one point in North Carolina, two points in Nevada, half a point in Pennsylvania, and 1.2 points in Wisconsin.
While Harris was campaigning for voters, RFK Jr. brought actual voters.
Kennedy had risen to double digits in the polls during the campaign, when it appeared the candidates would be Trump and Biden.
But CNN locked him out of the June debate, forcing down his support and refusing to cover his campaign, aside from focusing on strange incidents such as Kennedy leaving a dead bear in Central Park years ago.
Still, by last week, Kennedy had around six percent support around the country.
Although he had both Republicans and Democrats on his team, he drew much of his support from epple who otherwise would have voted for Trump..and he knew it.
So, he brought himself to Phoenix to endorse Trump—and he brought his voters with him.
He even called on his backers to help him and his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, to join the Trump-Vance ticket in creating a “unity government” after the election is over.
It was a big gamble—and it paid off this week.