Recent polling in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state, indicates that former President Donald Trump may be pulling away with the 2024 presidential election.
The Commonwealth Foundation’s survey, conducted from June 14-19 among 800 registered voters, reveals a narrow margin between the potential Democratic and Republican candidates.
Pennsylvania is considered a “blue wall” state — a state that President Joe Biden’s campaign must win to fend off Trump’s re-election.
According to the poll, 48% of respondents would choose the Democratic candidate, while 47% would vote for the Republican candidate — within the margin of error
This represents a significant shift in favor of Trump from the Foundation’s March poll, which showed Biden leading 51% to 44%.
A CNN survey following the recently presidential debate suggested that 67% of viewers believed Trump performed better, compared to 33% to just Biden.
While debate performance doesn’t always directly translate to electoral success, critics have noted the historically poor performance of Biden — who was feeble, halting, and repeatedly lost his train of thought.
The poll also provides insights into voter priorities. Inflation and cost of living ranked as the top concern for 20% of registered voters, followed by immigration/border security at 10%, and the economy at 9% — all key focuses of the Trump campaign.
Abortion, a key focus of Democratic campaigns, was cited as the top issue by just 5% of respondents.
Interestingly, while Biden’s favorability rating in Pennsylvania is underwater by 12 points, other Democrats in the state maintain positive ratings.
Sen. Bob Casey, up for re-election, holds a +14 favorability rating and leads his Republican opponent by 12 points. Sen. John Fetterman, who like Biden suffers from mental cognition issues, maintains a +11 favorability rating.
A separate poll by Cygnal shows Trump has taken the lead among likely voters, 47.3% to 44.7%. The poll also suggests that “swing voters” prefer the Republican candidate by nearly four points, though 40% remain undecided.
Pennsylvania’s significance in presidential elections cannot be overstated.
The state was crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016 and to Biden’s win in 2020.
As of Tuesday morning, the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate shows Trump with a three-point lead over Biden in the state.
Both campaigns are likely to focus heavily on Pennsylvania given its 19 electoral votes and recent history as a swing state.