Don’t write off President Donald Trump yet.
The polls might show him trailing Joe Biden, and the liberal media is acting as if the former vice president has already won.
For example, The New York Times wrote Thursday there was ” a persuasive argument that the 2020 election is already over” in an article titled, “Is Trump Toast?”
Other media outlets have speculated that Trump will drop out of the presidential race before the election is even held.
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But new polls of two key swing states show this race is far from over. Trump could be on the verge of pulling off an upset even more shocking than his 2016 win over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which turned the world of politics upside down forever.
The FiveThirtyEight national average currently has Biden up by 9.5 points going into the holiday weekend.
That’s nearly double the lead Clinton had on the same date in 2016.
The media is eating it up, practically measuring the Oval Office drapes for Biden and even asking Trump if he’ll accept defeat and leave the White House willingly.
But the real story isn’t in the national polls.
It’s in the states – specifically the core “swing” states where Trump defeated Clinton in 2016, and where at least one key pollster believes he just might pull it off again here in 2020.
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FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by an average of 10.5 points in Michigan and 8.2 points in Wisconsin.
But the Trafalgar Group’s latest polls show Trump and Biden locked in a dead heat in both states.
Their poll of Michigan conducted June 16-18 finds Biden up by just 1 point… and African-American voters may be abandoning him in the state, with 12 percent now supporting Trump.
That’s twice the level of support Trump received from African-American voters in Michigan in 2016.
Maybe Biden’s infamous “you ain’t black” comments are starting to resonate.
The same polling firm also found Trump up by 1 in Wisconsin.
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In both Wisconsin and Michigan, the margin was 46-45 – showing a large number of “other” and “undecided” voters, a group that famously broke for Trump at the last minute in 2016.
Why trust one pollster over all the others?
Because of recent history: As RealClearPolitics points out, Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly was the most accurate pollster of 2016.
The same year the mainstream through Clinton had it in the bag… with some giving her a 99 percent chance of victory… Cahaly saw the numbers that the rest missed, finding Trump was beating Clinton in key swing states.
The group’s polls gave Trump a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states the pundit class had long assumed Clinton would win. She didn’t, and the two states combined with Wisconsin gave Trump his Electoral College margin of victory.
This wasn’t dumb luck.
Cahaly, RealClearPolitics notes, was able to find what the others missed with a trick that could help him again in 2020.
He was able to calculate what he called a “shy Trump effect” by asking people not just who they were voting for but who they thought their neighbors were voting for. He also found a way to measure “inactive” voters who were prompted by Trump to become active and vote.
And in 2018, he made headlines again, predicting Republican wins in Florida for both governor and Senate races as well as in multiple other races across several states. Some of those races were tighter than the firm’s polls showed – but Cahaly said that would become an opportunity to fine-tune his models ahead of 2020.
“What few mistakes we made this time, we won’t make again,” Cahaly told RealClearPolitics in 2018.
He won’t make the same mistakes – but as the rest of the polls show, it looks like the mainstream already has.
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert, and is the author of “America’s Final Warning.”