The gloom-and-doom mainstream media is acting as if the election is practically over.
Former Vice President Joe Biden now has an insurmountable lead… and nothing short of a miracle will help President Donald Trump catch up.
That’s pretty much what they were saying exactly four years ago, when Trump was running against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Clinton, of course, also held an “insurmountable” lead for most of the summer.
In fact, just about every poll showed her ahead… from the start of the election season right down to the end… but that didn’t stop voters from turning out in droves for Trump on Election Day.
On the face of it, the numbers do look dire for Trump.
Fox News had Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent each in April… Biden ahead by 8 in May… and now ahead by 12 in their latest polls, which has them at 50-38.
Other polls are just as bad: Biden’s up by 14 in a CNN poll, 10 in a CNBC poll, and 9 in a poll by the Economist.
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But polls don’t always capture the voters, as infamously happened in 2016.
“Many people who said they were undecided were actually already committed to Trump,” Scientific American noted after the 2016 election. “Societal pressures might have kept them from declaring their true intention.”
Those people – Trump’s “silent majority” – likely swung the 2016 election.
Trump had a last-minute net gain of 2.3 percent in the final vote from both undecideds and people who switched their votes, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis. Clinton had a net loss of 1.7 percent from those voters.
That’s a combined effect of 4 points.
That’s not enough to swing the Fox News poll, for example.
But a poll in June is not the same as what we’ll see in September, October, and November when the race will almost certainly get much, much closer… just as it did in 2016, when Clinton dominated the summer polls only to see her once-massive lead evaporate as the leaves changed color.
And indeed the polls are already tightening as Biden’s massive early-June leads quickly fade.
The polling organization Øptimus, for example, gave Biden an 11-point lead on June 8.
Just 10 days later, he lost more than half of that lead, ahead of Trump by just 5 points.
If the past is any indication, the polls from Fox News and others – the ones giving Biden a huge lead – will also tighten up rather quickly and it’ll be off to the races again.
And with more than four months to the election, a lot can change.
Already the economy is on the rebound. New unemployment claims are plunging as Americans go back to work – and Democrats are not-so-secretly terrified that could lead to a Trump surge at the polls.
“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration, told a bipartisan meeting last month, according to Politico.
Trump administration officials agreed.
“If CBO is correct we will see the strongest quarter in history after the weakest in Q2,” economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Politico.
Furman predicted employment numbers jumping by 1-2 million per month in the four months leading up to the election.
“The Trump argument will be he’s producing the fastest job growth and fastest economic growth in history,” Furman told the website. “If he has any ability to do nuance he would say, ‘We are not there yet, reelect me to finish the job.’”
And even Democrats admit that argument would be a tough one to top, especially when voters compare the explosive economic growth under Trump to the anemic growth under the Obama-Biden administration.
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert, and is the author of “America’s Final Warning.”