Most Republican voters think the candidate with the most delegates heading into the party’s convention in July should ultimately emerge as the GOP’s presidential nominee, regardless of whether he holds the majority of all delegates needed to secure the nomination, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
The survey finds Republicans are more likely to think of Donald Trump as a possible general election winner than either of his current GOP rivals.
Here are some things to know about opinions on a contested convention and which Republican candidates could win a general election from the latest AP-GfK poll:
NOT LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES
According to the new poll, nearly 6 in 10 Republican voters — 58 percent — think the candidate with the most delegates after all the state contests are finished should be the nominee, even if he doesn’t have a clear majority.
Just 40 percent think it would be acceptable for the delegates to pick a different candidate.
That’s true even though slightly fewer have a favorable opinion of Trump, who will likely go into the convention with more delegates than any other candidate. Just 53 percent of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
DIVIDED OVER TRUMP
Within the Republican Party, opinions of Trump draw a dramatic divide in terms of how the convention should work out.
Eight in 10 Republican voters who have a favorable opinion of Trump think the party should nominate the ultimate delegate leader.
But among Republican voters with an unfavorable opinion of Trump, two-thirds think it would be acceptable for the delegates to choose someone else. Another third of those who don’t like Trump nonetheless think the party should nominate the delegate leader in the end.
AMERICA DIVIDED
Among all Americans, nearly half think it would be acceptable for the delegates at the GOP convention to choose a different nominee, while about as many think the candidate in the lead should be the nominee.
Democratic voters think by a 63 percent to 35 percent margin that it would be acceptable for the Republican delegates to nominate another candidate if the leader doesn’t have a majority of delegates.
PICKING A WINNER?
Although some Republican leaders have expressed concern that a Trump nomination would lead to a loss in November, that’s not a concern most Republican voters share. Eighty-one percent think Trump could possibly win a general election, versus those who say so of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (66 percent) or Ohio Gov. John Kasich (just 41 percent).
But the poll suggests both of the top GOP candidates would in fact be hard sells in a general election, with 63 percent of registered voters saying they would definitely not vote for Trump and 55 percent that they wouldn’t consider voting for Cruz. Forty-four percent say they wouldn’t consider voting for Kasich.
By contrast, 51 percent say they wouldn’t consider voting for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a general election and 38 percent wouldn’t consider voting for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Still, even among Americans as a whole, about 6 in 10 think Trump could potentially win a general election, just under half think Cruz could and only a third think Kasich could. Kasich is still largely unknown to the American people, with 34 percent, including 26 percent of Republican voters, unable to say if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.
For those of you who are interested, Rush Limbaugh gave a very detailed explanation of everything to do with the RNC convention. Who ever is interested look up his discourse on April 12. Very informative. We also had a situation very similar to this in 1952. The country survived then, and probably will survive this time. But we may have to endure gallons of crocodile tears.
The winds of change are coming for our country. Suddenly the Democrats have allowed a self proclaimed ” So So a list,” from one of the original colonies to run on their ticket. WHAT the blank is going on in that party. Europe just loves Bernie, what a joke.
If the border is not secured the country will become a European nightmare. If Trump is denied the nomination, the GOP is done. Since RINO’s act just like Democrats, that may not be such a problem.
no I guess not Greg, too many RINOs are democrats and open about it. Conservatives are the vast minority sad to say. So where does that leave the electorate? US? Screwed it looks like. Yep, time for a new party. The GOP has abandoned it’s principles to the “good ol boy” society. i think it would be funny if the convention told the leadership where to stick themselves. After the disaster in CO. I have little faith in even state GOP politics.
Amen, I have bragged that the USA has the best form of government all my life. Boy, do I have egg on my face. The Republicans (RINOs) are as bad as the Democrats (socialists). The general population is damned.
James, you got that right! The Republicans are as low down as the Democrats.
The ones we elected to keep the Dems in check just go along. And another
thing that burns me up is these people can raise their own salaries while
we ordinary Americans just sit by and allow them.
I believe the solution is going to be abandon ALL financial contributions to the G.O.P. They have totally ignored their conservative base.
If they further refuse to support the ‘Will of their Constituents’, they no longer serve a purpose in their existence.
The political elite establishment can’t buy or control Trump. They will do anything to stay on the gravy train. This is why the press leads the attack on Trump. The problem is some of the RINO’s will vote for insider Hillary to stay on the gravy train. This only the beginning.
I am sick and tired of paying for their Gravy Train. They, the so called “elite” will vote for Hillary who is out only for Hillary and to hell with what is best for the country and what the citizens want. She will keep their perks coming in. What a sad shape our country is in. I’m sick of politicians PERIOD. I’m sure there are some good ones and honest ones but they are so outnumbered.
Voters need to read Donald Trumps’ books…”Get Tough” and “Crippled America” to be an educated voter!!!!
Yes, they should read his books and wake up on the damage done by our nation’s elected or selected Officials. It is time to change the rules to better represent the American voter !!!
Donald Trumps’ President behavior is spelled out in his recent books…”Get Tough” and “Crippled America” A good read for every patriotic american.
The RNC’s actions are disgusting and is representing the party “elite” rather than the voters. I have been a Republican my entire
life – now 78 yrs old – and believe that RNC’s actions – are and will – destroy my party. Trump and Cruz should be the only
two considered for nomination as they have campaigned and received the support and vote of the people. The RNC should
be ashamed of their behind the scenes actions of destroying both candidates, rather than supporting those who have received
the support of the voters.
Jack, You and I are the same age and I tore up my membership after the Romney debacle. The Cabal they refer to as State nominating process is a total joke controlled by the Party for the Party and anyone who attempts to upset the applecart is going to go down in flames. We are constantly told to Give Us the House and we will???, Then Give Us the Senate and we will??? now they are in the process of making sure One of the Good Ole Boys (Kasich) is the Party Choice as determined by the Convention Clown Show.
My opinion of Donald Trump has worsened as we have gone through this campaign season. I have grown weary of hearing his constant whining about the latest person to mistreat him.
Unless the puny voter-turnout by Judeo/Christian voters exceeds the usual 20% to 30%, and they vote for traditional American values, this election will be no different than usual. It will be a squeaker. The problem there is like it was with Romney; he would have had to beat BO by perhaps 10 percentage points to overcome all the votes by dead people, illegal aliens, multiple voting and who knows what else!
In reading the comments, there is one element that isn’t mentioned, George Soros. George Soros, owns the voting machines and they can and will be set, to count however he wishes. It seems that no one, recalls, the 147%, that voted against Col. West, in Florida, in the last two elections. And what about the 109% in Ohio or the 98% in PA. How many complaints were filed for this incredible theft of the presidency, of this country and all because of the color of the man’s skin. It was said then and I have no reason to doubt it, that the republican party has won its last national election. The last two elections were stolen, they got away with it, so does anyone really think, that it is going to change?
WHO are the people being polled? I have never in my 65 years been polled or even met anyone that was polled. Are these polled people living or dead, are they Americans or tourist from other countries? With such a small number of people “polled” what makes it so valid to be a real poll?
Funny but not funny!!
I have felt the same way. Who are the ppl being polled? Nobody I know!!
I just watched the Sean Hannity show this evening April 13th. Mr. Trump was talking about steel jobs, coal jobs, energy jobs. Not a word about Cruz. Maybe he’s starting to listen to Paul Manafort. He hired him to manage his campaign, and maybe it’s producing results. Mr. Trump can be the smartest guy when he wants to be. He needs to do more of it. Shut up about stupid stuff. No more mention of Cruz. Talk about your (Trump’s) campaign and ideas. Mr. Trump has strengths/weaknesses. We need him to emphasize the strengths. You won’t beat Hillary any other way.
True!!
I live in Colorado and I am very disappointed in the caucus system. We need the primary system where we can vote for ourselves and not have delegates to decide what is best for us. One person, one vote.