Former first lady Michelle Obama just got some very bad news on Monday.
There’s no hope coming for President Joe Biden’s struggling presidential re-election campaign. After months of speculation that Michelle Obama would replace Biden at the Democratic National Convention, pollsters began to ask voters about the hypothetical match-up.
Bad news for Michelle Obama fans: A new poll from J.L. Partners and The Daily Mail has revealed that she trails Trump by roughly the same margin as Biden in a 2024 general election head-to-head matchup.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters found that 47% said they would back Trump in a race against Michelle Obama, who secured 44% support. Trump leads Biden by a narrower 46% to 43% spread in the same poll.
Obama has been repeatedly floated by some pundits as a potential Democratic alternative to Biden given concerns about the president’s age, the poll results suggest she fares no better against Trump’s candidacy.
“Voters are no more keen to vote for Michelle over Trump than they are for Biden, with Trump beating her overall and even with Independents,” J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson told The Daily Mail in analyzing the data.
Johnson added that the findings appear to “put paid to the idea she can be any kind of saving force for the Democrats” heading into 2024, at least based on current polling.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @JLPartnersPolls (H2H)
🟥 Donald Trump 46% (+3)
🟦 Joe Biden 43%
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🟥 Donald Trump 47% (+3)
🟦 Michelle Obama 44%@DailyMail | 1,000 LV | 3/20-24 | ±3.1%https://t.co/Iw8f42pCGe https://t.co/jiaXKNU2Xq pic.twitter.com/YcmcLx0lmE— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 31, 2024
The numbers emerge as Michelle Obama has voiced concerns about threats to American democracy, saying in January that she was “terrified about what could possibly happen” in the next presidential election cycle.
Her office has repeatedly denied the former first lady has ambitions to return to the White House despite pressure, saying in March that “she will not be running for president” despite serious concerns about Biden’s age and unpopularity.
Beyond the Trump head-to-heads, the J.L. Partners/Daily Mail poll also tested a hypothetical five-way general election featuring declared third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West.
In that scenario, Trump leads with 43% support compared to 39% for Biden. No other candidate cracked double digits, with Kennedy at 7%, West at 2%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein drawing just 1% of respondents.
The poll was conducted March 20-24 among 1,000 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
While polls this far out from Election Day 2024 have obvious limitations, the data provides a snapshot of the uphill battle Biden may face in securing a second term – whether his opponent is Trump or a multi-candidate field.
For Republicans, the findings reinforce Trump’s standing as a formidable frontrunner at this stage. But for Democrats, the numbers raise new doubts about the party’s viability in 2024 should Biden’s age or unpopularity force a late scramble to identify an alternate standard bearer.
The Horn editorial team