Early voting numbers are breaking records across the nation, with Republicans showing huge enthusiasm for casting ballots before Election Day — and it seems to be very good news for former President Donald Trump.
Nearly 19 million Americans have already voted, representing about 11% of 2020’s total turnout. Key battleground states are seeing particularly strong participation, with Georgia reporting more than 1.6 million early votes and North Carolina reaching 1.4 million by Tuesday.
And Republicans are outpacing Democrats almost across the board.
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are — and that’s a big if — we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win,” veteran political journalist Mark Halperin told the Morning Meeting podcast.
“Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can partially understand the data, we’ll know Donald Trump is going to win on Election Day,” he said.
Trump has encouraged supporters to vote early, a shift in his 2020 stance of voting on Election Day.
“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump has said repeatedly.
At an October 15 rally in Atlanta, he urged supporters: “If you have a ballot, return it immediately. If not, go tomorrow as soon as you can go to the polls and vote.”
Vice President Kamala Harris has also encouraged Democrats to vote early. But Republicans appear to be responding in force, while Democrats are lagging behind badly.
In Nevada, where Democrats have historically dominated early voting, Republicans appear to lead by approximately 6,000 votes in in-person early voting, representing 52% of the total compared to Democrats’ 28%.
Democrats maintain their advantage in mail voting, representing 43% of returned mail ballots while Republicans account for about 30%.
Pennsylvania, which lacks traditional early in-person voting, shows a different picture. Democrats lead in mail ballot returns by about 350,000 votes, with approximately 650,000 Democratic ballots returned compared to 300,000 Republican ones.
While the early voting hints at a Trump victory, election experts caution against drawing too early a conclusion.
“We don’t know if this is a shifting of furniture yet or an added strength for Republicans,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist. He notes that current voters are primarily high-propensity voters who may have simply shifted from Election Day to early voting.
Besides Trump, other Republican leaders have urged voters to get out and cast their ballot quickly.
“We can’t afford to wait,” Wisconsin GOP Chairman Brian Schimming said Monday, citing weather concerns as one reason to vote early.
With just three weeks remaining until the Election Day tally, the message seems to be working for Republican voters.
Both campaigns are closely monitoring these early returns — but a strong Election Day turnout from either side could still dramatically shift the final results.