Georgia has seen unprecedented early voting turnout for the 2024 presidential election — and initial data suggests a potentially unbeatable advantage for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in this crucial swing state.
On Tuesday, the first day of early voting, Georgia shattered previous records with 415,688 ballots cast, according to the secretary of state’s election data hub. This far surpasses the previous first-day record of 136,000 votes set in 2020.
Gabe Sterling of the Georgia secretary of state’s office reported that by including accepted absentee ballots, the total votes cast so far exceeded 328,000.
The high turnout continued into the second day, with Sterling reporting 57,034 ballots cast within the first hour and a half on Wednesday. Sterling anticipated another 200,000 votes on Day Two, potentially pushing the total past half a million votes already.
A county-level breakdown of the voting data reveals interesting patterns. While the four counties with the highest turnout – Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, and Gwinnett – all voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, the next three highest turnout counties are described as solidly pro-Trump.
Cherokee County, which went for Trump with 68.8% of the vote in 2020, Forsyth County with 65.8%, and Hall County with 70.9%, collectively cast 36,960 ballots, comprising nearly 9% of all votes on the first day.
This strong showing in Trump-leaning counties, combined with high turnout in traditionally Republican areas, suggests that the GOP has successfully mobilized its base for early voting.
Audrey Haynes, an associate political science professor at the University of Georgia, told Newsweek, “The record-breaking numbers suggest that Republicans have bought into early voting and mobilized GOP voters to vote by mail or by absentee ballots.”
Other analysts say it appears that Republican voters are “banking” their ballots at a greater pace than Democrats — a strong sign for Trump.
Take a look —
Relative Percentage Change in Georgia Early Voting Share: GOP vs. Dem Counties, 2024 First Day Compared to 2022 Total pic.twitter.com/u3U5HJi5bs
— petebray (@petebray) October 16, 2024
Percentage Decrease in In-Person Votes from Day 1 to Day 2 (mid-day): Democratic vs. Republican Counties in Georgia pic.twitter.com/9un1fP7QfR
— petebray (@petebray) October 16, 2024
Polls indicate a tight race in Georgia. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris, while RealClearPolitics gives Trump an even narrower 0.5-point advantage.
Both predictions fall within the margin of error. Georgia’s status as a critical battleground state, and its all-important 16 electoral votes, will likely come down to voter turnout.
Despite the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Helene in parts of the state, the voting process appears to be running smoothly. Some Atlanta-area voters reported an easier experience compared to previous elections.
While the early numbers seem to favor Trump, experts caution against drawing definitive conclusions.
Steve Schier, a political analyst, told Newsweek, “It’s always hard to make sense of early voting totals. This is particularly the case in 2024 because comparing them to 2020 results is difficult due to the huge number of mail-in votes in 2020 that are so far not occurring in 2024.”
As early voting continues, both campaigns are likely to intensify their efforts in Georgia.
Haynes predicts, “The next two weeks are going to be all hands on deck for fieldwork. Expect more canvassing, follow-ups and phone calls to people who have not voted.”