With nearly 100 million votes already cast for the 2020 election – over 70 percent of the total vote counted in 2016 – President Donald Trump’s campaign said they’re already confident in victory.
One expert said the early numbers are bad news for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden – and the Trump campaign has the data to back up their bold claim.
According to Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battlefield strategy, the president is in a stronger position this Election Day compared to 2016.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s advantage in early voting is statistically less than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s was heading into the last day of voting, Trainer said.
With 100 million votes already registered, the Trump campaign says: “Election Day is going to look like a Trump rally.”
Trainer went state-by-state to break down in a recent interview with The Washington Examiner.
He acknowledged that the Democrats have an advantage in early voting – but said it’s a smaller one statisically than they enjoyed in 2016.
And the Trump campaign knows almost the number of Trump supporters need to vote in each state to win.
“The Democrats are going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a three-quarter million head start heading into tomorrow, probably more than that,” Trainer said. “What we know right now that there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow, and there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow.”
“So, Pennsylvania, in particular, is going to look on election night on an Election Day vote standpoint like the president wins in an absolute landslide. However, we know the margins he needs to win by in Pennsylvania, and that math is available to us from a turnout perspective.”
“Joe Biden wasted time today to go to Ohio. Weeks ago, the partisan makeup of the electorate in Ohio was Democrats plus-10%. Today, it’s Democrats 0.6%. Going into Election Day in 2016, that gap was Democrats plus-2.5%,” Trainer said.
“President Trump has a projected Election Day margin of over 400,000 net votes in Ohio.”
North Carolina —
“Democrats jumped out to a partisan advantage of D plus-32. Today it is D 5.8,” Trainer said.
“Going into Election Day 2016, the partisan advantage was Democrats plus-9.7%. Again, President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes.”
“Democrats jumped out to an 18.8% partisan advantage during the early voting period. Today, it’s down to 1%,” Trainer pointed out.
“Going into Election Day 2016, the gap was 1.4%. President Trump has an Election Day margin of over 500,000 net ballots.”
“Weeks ago, the makeup of that electorate was D plus-11.9%. After significant early voting, it is now down to D plus-1.2%,” he said.
“The gap on Election Day in 2016, D plus-2.5%. President Trump will win Election Day in Arizona by 150,000 votes.”
Trainer said that the trend of a weaker Democratic advantage than 2016 continues in Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Of course, it won’t mean anything if Republicans don’t get out to vote Tuesday.
The Trump campaign needs a very strong turn-out on Election Day. If they get it, they expect a big win – and have multiple paths to 270 electoral votes.
“It’s pretty simple out there,” Trainer said. “If the voters that we know are still left in the electorate, still wanting to participate in this election, show up tomorrow as they’ve been telling us for well over two years now, President Trump is going to have four more years.”
The Associated Press contributed to this article