Recent polls show the 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has tightened significantly, with Trump narrowly ahead in battleground states just weeks before the election.
A Wall Street Journal poll of seven battleground states, conducted from September 28 to October 8, found Trump and Harris virtually tied.
The survey, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points, showed Harris leading in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, while Trump held advantages in Nevada and Pennsylvania. North Carolina and Wisconsin were deadlocked.
“It really could not be closer,” said Democrat Michael Bocian, one of the pollsters who worked on the survey. “It’s an even-steven, tight, tight race.”
This sentiment is echoed in other recent polls. Quinnipiac University’s survey of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan showed Trump leading in the latter two, with RealClearPolitics’s polling average giving Trump an edge in Michigan for the first time in months.
πΊπ² Swing States Polling by Emerson
ARIZONA
π₯ Trump: 49% (+2)
π¦ Harris: 47%
β
PENNSYLVANIA
π₯ Trump: 49% (+1)
π¦ Harris: 48%
β
GEORGIA
π₯ Trump: 49% (+1)
π¦ Harris: 48%
β
NORTH CAROLINA
π₯ Trump: 49% (+1)
π¦ Harris: 48%
β
MICHIGAN
π¦ Harris: 49% (=)
π₯ Trump: 49%
ββ¦— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024
The tightening race marks the end of Harris’s post-nomination “honeymoon” period. Despite the Democrats’ advantages in fundraising and volunteer signups, these have not translated into convincing polling leads — especially disastrous considering how much Trump tends to out perform polls.
On issues, voters trust Trump more on the economy, inflation, and immigration, while preferring Harris on healthcare, abortion, and housing affordability.
The WSJ poll found that 47% of voters believe Trump will better stand up for American workers, compared to 45% for Harris.
With the debates likely concluded, both campaigns are making strategic moves in the final weeks. T
rump has announced plans for a mega-rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, while Harris is deploying running mate Tim Walz to Wisconsin for a series of events.
The Senate races present a different picture, with Republicans gaining momentum. Polls show vulnerable GOP incumbents in Florida and Texas holding on, while Democrat Jon Tester faces a tough battle in Montana. The loss of Tester’s seat, coupled with the expected loss in West Virginia, could lead to a 51-49 Republican majority in the Senate.
Republican pollster David Lee told the Wall Street Journal, “This thing is a dead heat and is going to come down to the wire. These last three weeks matter.”