Still stinging from an embarrassing 2020 primary process that kicked off with a glitch-filled disaster of a caucus in Iowa, Democrats are looking to shake up the calendar.
And voters in the American heartland aren’t happy.
“They’re gonna find out pretty quickly that the cure to what they see as the problem is going to be worse than the problem,” Jeff Kaufmann, chair of the Iowa Republican Party, told NBC News.
The Washington Post is reporting that the Democratic National Committee is looking at ending the tradition of letting Iowa kick off primary season, as it has for decades with its famous – and often mystifying – caucuses.
They’re rethinking the early primaries, in which four states get to vote before the March primary calendar opens up, currently Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
The Post said Democrats see both New Hampshire and Iowa as too white, and Iowa as too conservative, to hold such an honor.
They’re looking for four factors from the early states: a diverse electorate, competitiveness in the general election, primaries rather than confusing caucuses, and a state small enough that candidates can compete without using up their war chest.
DNC member Mo Elleithee told NBC that New Hampshire checks enough boxes to potentially keep its place on the calendar.
Ditto for South Carolina and Nevada.
The Hawkeye State’s another story.
“I think it is a harder case for Iowa to make,” he said.
But Kaufman told NBC News that Republicans in the past have tried the tweak the calendar.
And it didn’t go well.
“You just don’t click your fingers and a bunch of people bloviating at a committee meeting, many of whom have never even run an election themselves, actually come up with something that’s better,” he warned.
At least some of this is a reaction to Iowa’s 2020 disaster, in which an app used to report results failed and a backup phone system went on the fritz.
What happened next turned out to be an ominous preview of the election itself, with confusing and shifting results, multiple candidates claiming victory and an official declaration of a winner taking days.
That could lead to Iowa getting the boot from its prestigious place in the presidential calendar.
Iowa Democratic chair Ross Wilburn promised a battle.
“I’m going to continue to fight like hell for Iowa,” he told the Des Moines Register. “I’m not naïve to the fact that the odds are stacked against us and the other early states like New Hampshire.”
States are already lobbying to take Iowa’s place.
Both The Post and NBC News said one state is pushing hard: Nevada.
That state recently changed from a caucus, like Iowa, to a true primary, like New Hampshire.
The state’s Democratic leaders have been circulating a document that points out Nevada is far more diverse than either Iowa or New Hampshire.
“Nevada is still a small, accessible state that provides an early test of candidates without breaking the bank, with two primary media markets that cover 90% of the state,” a brochure created by state party leaders reads, according to the Post.
But any change could – as Kaufman warned – lead to chaos.
And tinkering with New Hampshire comes with a special risk: The state has a law that orders the secretary of state to schedule the primary before any other state.
That could help The Granite State keep its place on the calendar.
But despite complaints from party leaders that Iowa doesn’t represent the nation’s Democratic voters, the state itself has a stellar track record in picking candidates. The 2020 primary was the first time in decades the winner of the Iowa caucuses wasn’t the eventual Democratic nominee.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won the popular vote, while then-South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg won the total delegate count.
Iowa has been much less predictive on the GOP side. The last time voters in the state selected the eventual GOP nominee in a truly contested election was in 2000, when it went for George W. Bush.
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert.