Democrats are already bracing for what’s being called a nightmare scenario for Election Day.
President Donald Trump could jump out to an early lead in key swing states such as Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – so much that he could declare victory.
But it could also take so long to count the ballots that former Vice President Joe Biden would not only not concede that night… but even declare victory himself days or weeks later.
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“We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump,” Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn told Axios on HBO.
That’s a left-leaning data and analytics firm funded by former New York Mayor – and failed presidential candidate – Michael Bloomberg, which works with Democratic candidates and PACs.
The organization is warning of what Mendelsohn is calling the “red mirage,” as Trump appears to win at first by taking an early and seemingly decisive lead in both the Electoral College and popular vote.
Hawkfish estimates Trump could take a 408-130 lead in electoral votes on election night itself, a number unmatched since President George H.W. Bush took 426 electoral votes in 1988.
“We can anticipate that the president and at least Fox News likely, but many others, are going to declare victory at that point,” Ellen Konar, the group’s vice president of voter research, told USA Today. “They’re not going to say, ‘Oh, let’s hold off. We don’t have all the ballots in.’”
It’s a situation that would’ve been unthinkable even six months ago.
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But with the coronavirus pandemic likely to extend well into autumn, many states are expanding mail-in voting options – which could be delayed due to problems at the U.S. post office.
Many ballots could arrive at the last minute or even late – and in some cases after the election, which would still be counted in a number of states.
That in turn could lead to what some call the “blue shift” with the outcome turning more Democratic as these mail-in votes are counted… perhaps enough of a shift for Biden to then declare victory.
“When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,” Mendelsohn warned. “It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.”
But others say that change in results could undermine the election itself — a situation that is bad for both sides of the political aisle.
“The worst scenario of all is on the morning of the fourth of November, Trump looks like the winner, and then over the course of the next 10 days, all these mail-in votes are counted and the result gets reversed,” wrote Raheem Kassam, editor of the conservative website National Pulse.
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Trump and his team may argue that the mail-in ballots are more prone to voter fraud.
And that could then lead to a legal situation that’ll make the aftermath of the 2000 presidential election and Florida look like a picnic in the park as multiple states face recounts, lawsuits, and the potential for unrest and lawlessness.
CNN reports that both parties already have teams of attorneys standing by, ready to challenge close outcomes across swing states.
It could even lead to a situation the nation hasn’t seen in more than a century: an election thrown into the House of Representatives.
That wouldn’t mean a win for Biden even though the Democrats control the body.
In this specific situation, the House would vote by state delegation, with each state getting one vote.
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Republicans control 26 state delegations versus 23 for the Democrats (and one tie), meaning the House would likely vote in favor of Trump if they maintain that control through the coming election.
But that may not be how it ends, either.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could arrange for losing Democratic candidates to “contest” specific elections, delaying some Republicans from being seated.
The Washington Post said that this tactic, done strategically, could give Democrats control over enough state delegations to swing the election.
Most analysts believe these scenarios are very unlikely.
Some even believe the worst-case outcomes won’t materialize; key states will count votes quickly and on Election Day, giving Americans a clear winner by bedtime.
But if the past four years have taught us anything, it’s not just to expect the unexpected… but the unprecedented, too.
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert, and is the author of “America’s Final Warning.”