Virginia has become reliably blue at the presidential level, and now Old Dominion is preparing to elect a new governor this November
Democrat Terry McAuliffe will face Republican Glenn Youngkin in an election with no incumbent… and the Democrats are panicking.
The Republicans’ internal polling puts Youngkin three points ahead of McAuliffe, according to a recent survey by On Message Inc.
Internal pollsters sometimes overestimate their candidates’ performance… but not always. Last year, former Rep. Joe Kennedy III ran for Senate and lost. His campaign’s own pessimistic polling predicted the election more accurately than the independent pollsters.
Granted, McAuliffe is still leading in most polls, according to the polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics. However, Democrats are worrying less about these current, static polls and more about the trend lines. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll average, Youngkin has been steadily rising in the polls over time, and McAuliffe has been falling. If current trends continue, then Youngkin should pull ahead.
Plus, the Democrats have embarrassed themselves with respect to fundraising… in an election poised to become the most expensive in the state’s history.
OpenSecrets reported in September that Youngkin had raised $4 million more than McAuliffe, despite McAuliffe’s endorsement from the president and connections to the Clintons.
Currently, McAuliffe boasts lower expenditures and more cash on hand. He may be saving his money for, say, an ad blitz immediately before Election Day.
However, Youngkin can fund himself. The Washington Post estimated his net worth at $300 million in May.
Virginia has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 2008, and President Joe Biden won the state by about 10 points, a landslide.
However, Virginia’s state-level elections are less predictable, perhaps because they’re always held off-year. Republicans controlled both chambers of the state legislature as recently as last year.
This time, the polls are close, and FiveThirtyEight called the contest “either candidate’s race to win.”
See more: Dems hit ‘panic button’ as swing state slips away
The Horn editorial team