A two-week ceasefire between the United States, Iran, and Israel is already near collapse.
Continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Iranian drone attacks on Gulf states allies, combined with the reality that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, has the peace deal on thin ice.
President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “a big day for World Peace” after announcing it late Tuesday, hours before his own deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating military consequences.
But as U.S. and Iranian negotiators meet to discuss the exact details of the ceasefire, the agreement could fall apart.
Within hours of the announcement, Israel launched its largest coordinated strike of the war in neighboring Lebanon, hitting more than 100 Hezbollah in under ten minutes. The terrorist Hezbollah organization is a key ally of Iran.
“Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the US, Israel and countries in the region,” Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Lebanon, he insisted, was a separate matter entirely.
Iran has demanded Israel withdraw. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the deal’s terms include their Islamic terror group proxies.
“The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Araghchi wrote on X. “The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”
The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, has been largely blocked since U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28. Abu Dhabi National Oil CEO Sultan Al Jaber confirmed Thursday that the waterway is still “not open,” and 230 loaded oil tankers are sitting idle inside the Gulf. Before the war, around 110 to 150 ships transited the Strait each day. On Thursday, only three oil tankers made it through.
Iran is demanding crypto currency payments in the millions as a toll for safe passage, and claims that sea mines have been placed in the main traffic zone of the strait. Oil prices have shot back up after a brief decline.
The United States allies in the Gulf have repeatedly been fired at during the ceasefire. Kuwait has accused Iran and its proxies of launching drone attacks against its territory Thursday. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting nine drones. The UAE reported destroying 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones. Iran’s IRGC denied responsibility, saying any attack carried out by its forces would be officially announced.
Trump made clear U.S. forces aren’t going anywhere.
“All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”
Trump also told NBC News he asked Netanyahu to be “a little more low-key” in Lebanon to protect the negotiations. Netanyahu has since said Israel is open to direct talks with Lebanon.
Vice President JD Vance has departed for Pakistan, where he will lead U.S. delegations in peace talks scheduled for the weekend.