In a surprising turn of events, the 2024 Maryland Senate race has emerged as an unexpectedly close contest, challenging the state’s reputation as a Democratic stronghold — and it means very bad news for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s hopes to keep his job.
A recent AARP poll released on Tuesday shows Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks and former Republican Governor Larry Hogan locked in a dead heat, each garnering 46% support among likely voters, with 7% still undecided.
This development has caught national attention, particularly given Maryland’s traditionally deep-blue status.
The state hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1987, and President Joe Biden carried Maryland by more than 33 points in 2020. The current Senate race stands in stark contrast to the presidential race, where the same poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by over 30 points.
This is terrible news for Schumer and national Democrats, who are already facing an uphill climb to defend their control of the U.S. Senate.
According to Fox News —
Democrats control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 margin, and Republicans are looking at a favorable election map this year with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.
One of those seats is in West Virginia, a deep red state that Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020. With moderate Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin, a former governor, not seeking re-election, flipping the seat is nearly a sure thing for the GOP.
Republicans are also aiming to flip seats in Ohio and Montana, two states Trump comfortably carried four years ago. And five more Democratic-held seats up for grabs this year are in crucial presidential-election battleground states.
Hogan’s competitiveness in this race is largely attributed to his popularity as a two-term governor and his reputation as a moderate Republican.
The poll reveals that Hogan is winning 25% of Democratic voters and leads among independents by 23 points.
He also enjoys stronger party support, with 83% of Republicans backing him, compared to 68% of Democrats supporting Alsobrooks.
Age demographics are playing a crucial role in the race. Hogan has a slight edge among voters 50 and older, a demographic that traditionally has high turnout rates.
This could prove decisive in a close election.
Despite some advantages, Hogan still faces challenges. His net favorability among undecided voters is lower than Alsobrooks’, which could become a vulnerability as the campaign progresses.
Additionally, Hogan must navigate the complexities of running as a Republican in a state where the top of the ticket, likely to be Trump, is deeply unpopular.
The race has significant national implications. With Democrats holding a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate, Republicans see Maryland as an unexpected opportunity to flip a seat, potentially tipping the balance of power in their favor.
Hogan left the governor’s office with high approval ratings and has worked to distance himself from the national Republican brand, including rejecting Trump’s endorsement.
The contest has become the third most expensive Senate race this cycle, according to OpenSecrets, indicating its perceived importance to both parties.
As November approaches, political observers are closely watching this race, which could reshape control of the U.S. Senate for years.
With older voters expected to play a decisive role, both campaigns are focusing on winning over the critical voting demographic.