President Joe Biden fired off a series of sanctions on Russia in response to escalating tensions in Ukraine, but at least one conservative commentator predicted the move might already be doomed.
The sanctions don’t do enough — and show Biden’s lack of will.
Ben Shapiro said on Twitter that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin believes the United States and Europe “will cave after a short period of shouting and sanctions,” which is pretty much what happened after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014.
The reason is simple: Too many countries depend on Russian energy, which was spared by Biden’s latest sanctions.
A third of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia, and Russia is one of the world’s leading exporters of crude oil.
While the United States is currently the world’s top oil producer, the 11.3 million barrels cranked out per day fall well short of the 17.2 million used by the nation.
That makes the U.S. heavily reliant on foreign sources, including Russia.
As of late 2021, according to Forbes, Russia was responsible for 7 percent of U.S. oil imports, or 595,000 barrels per day, making it our number three source of foreign oil.
Russia is behind Canada and Mexico, and ahead of Saudi Arabia.
Putin, of course, knows how dependent the world is on Russia’s oil and natural gas, especially the nations supposedly leading the charge against him on Ukraine and imposing sanctions.
And that’s why he’s calculated any sanctions or other actions won’t last.
Or as Shapiro put it on Twitter: “So yes, the West continues to send mixed messages: sanctions and rage for domestic consumption, but avoiding actual sanctions on natural gas and maintaining diplomatic contact on Iran. Putin reads those mixed messages as weakness. And all indicators are that he is correct.”
Biden has insisted that this time, the West means it – and they won’t let dependence on Russian oil and gas stand in the way.
“President Putin has provided the world with an overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas and to other forms of energy,” he said in a statement this week when announcing that the U.S. will join Germany in blocking Nord Stream 2 AG.
That’s the new pipeline that was expected to supply Germany and Europe with natural gas from Russia.
Germany halted the certification of the pipeline in response to Putin’s actions in Ukraine, and Biden initiated sanctions on both the pipeline company and its corporate officers.
Analysts are skeptical.
“I don’t buy it, Germany’s announcement today,” Neil Chatterjee, who served as top energy regulator in the Trump administration, told CNN. “It’s just a matter of when Nord Stream 2 is certified. It’s already built. I think this is posturing.”
He said Germany and much of Europe are just too dependent on Russia for their natural gas, and will have a hard time without ultimately activating the pipeline.
Putin is likely fully anticipating this.
“This plays into Putin’s hands,” he told the network. “Putin controls the timing on when and if he invades. Putin controls the timing on the delivery of gas. And that gives him dominant control.”
And of course the United States has its own pipeline issues: Biden halted the Keystone crude oil pipeline, which would have increased energy supply by moving up to 830,000 barrels per day from the Canadian sand fields.
That’s more than enough to make up for any loss in Russian crude.
But without the pipeline in place, Canadian oil will have a much tougher and slower journey to U.S. refineries.
As of now, the net result is that the brunt of the pain of those sanctions on Russia will likely be felt by inflation-weary U.S. consumers: Crude oil prices just hit an eight-year high and are rapidly heading toward $100 a barrel.
If Biden wants to help Ukraine — and stop Putin — he needs to implement real sanctions.
[Watch] Shocking videos emerge from Russia’s bloody Ukraine invasion
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert.