The United States is on pace to add about 2.6 million jobs this year under President Donald Trump’s watch — and the bulk of the hiring has helped Democratic voters in “deep blue” districts controlled by unions and manufacturing.
That’s bad news for Democrats who are expecting a “blue wave” in the mid-term election. Voters tend to follow their wallet when things are going well economically, which means there’ll be more Republican votes coming on election day.
On average for the year-ended this May, 58.5 percent of the job gains were in counties that backed Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to an Associated Press analysis of monthly government jobs data by county. The mainstream media will never report on this but, but that could lead to a Red Wave in November.
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Because the more modest job growth in Trump areas hasn’t eroded his support among Republicans. For Trump’s core supporters, cultural issues such as gun rights, immigration and loyalty to the president have become dominant priorities.
Trump has pointed with pride at a strengthening national economy in hopes that voters will reward the Republican Party by preserving its majorities in the House and Senate this year. The government reported the fastest quarterly economic growth since 2014 and the unemployment rate is a healthy 3.9 percent.
At a Pennsylvania rally on Thursday, the president declared, “Our economy is soaring. Our jobs are booming.”
Trump tweeted on Sunday, “Presidential Approval numbers are very good – strong economy, military and just about everything else. Better numbers than Obama at this point, by far. We are winning on just about every front and for that reason there will not be a Blue Wave, but there might be a Red Wave!”
Presidential Approval numbers are very good – strong economy, military and just about everything else. Better numbers than Obama at this point, by far. We are winning on just about every front and for that reason there will not be a Blue Wave, but there might be a Red Wave!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 5, 2018
Over the past year, the healthiest job gains have been in counties containing such vibrant cities as Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Seattle, all of them places that have favored Democrats.
Texas, which Trump won handily, reflects the geographic split in the economy. Within that state, Clinton — not Trump — won the counties that have accounted for bulk of that state’s job growth.
Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus was recently asked if voters would make their choice this November based on the health of the economy, and he said yes. His belief is that the tax cuts and pullback on regulations by Trump would help give him an edge.
“I think you look at the choice we have: Do we want to have more government and higher taxes or more jobs and higher wages?” Rothfus said. “That’s a pretty compelling argument.”
With the economy booming, and previously unemployed Democrats reaping the benefits of job growth, it’s likely that voters will respond.
That’s bad news for Democrats.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.