Vice President JD Vance called it months ago: Socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.
Early voting state New Hampshire just delivered very bad news for former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is leading in national polls.
The University of New Hampshire released its latest Granite State Poll Wednesday, and for the first time, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic 2028 presidential field in the state that kicks off the primary calendar. She sits at 22% — barely ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 21% — while the candidates who were supposed to be running the show have collapsed.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is at 8%.
Harris is at a pathetic 5% of support.
The poll surveyed more than 1,500 respondents. Among Democrats, AOC’s support comes primarily from “self-described socialists and progressives,” the UNH Survey Center noted.
Buttigieg’s coalition is spread across “progressives, liberals, and moderates” which is why both candidates are essentially tied.
The trend lines tell the bigger story. In the same poll conducted in February, Buttigieg led at 20%, Newsom and AOC were tied at 15%, and Harris was at 10%. By July, Harris’ support has been cut in half, while AOC climbed seven points.
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona came in third in the UNH poll at 9%, with Bernie Sanders and others trailing in single digits. No other Democrat broke 2%.
One notable absence: Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, the Senate’s top fundraiser, didn’t register in the UNH poll at all. But CNN data analyst Harry Enten pointed out Wednesday that Ossoff’s Google search interest jumped 300% compared to July 2025 and has never been higher. Enten called him “up like a hotlanta rocket” on prediction markets, where his 2028 chances have tripled from 5% in January to 16% today.
On the Republican side, Vance leads at 36%, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio has quietly closed ground, sitting at 26%. Sen. Rand Paul is at 8%. All other GOP potential candidates are in single digits.
Vance himself publicly predicted AOC would be the 2028 nominee during an interview with Michael Knowles earlier this month.
“I think it’s got to be AOC,” he said. “I know that’s probably conventional wisdom.” He argued that whoever controls the universities controls the Democratic Party, and the universities are firmly controlled by socialists like AOC.
New Hampshire is where the primary starts, and it gave the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008, and nearly gave it Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020.
The Granite State has a new name at the top of the list for 2028.