President Donald Trump is on the verge of ending the U.S.-Iran war, the the White House is making clear what happens if Iran blinks.
Washington and Tehran are closing in on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would formally end the war that began February 28 and set the stage for a permanent peace agreement, Axios first reported Wednesday.
“We will close this very soon. We are getting close,” a top Pakistani source told Reuters to confirm the talks.
Iran has 48 hours to respond to the key points of the memorandum.
The terms are sweeping. Under the deal, Iran would commit to a temporary stop on Iran’s uranium enrichment program — negotiations are reportedly centered on a duration of 12 to 15 years, with the U.S. pushing for 20 and Iran having proposed just five.
Tehran would agree to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the country, with one option being transfer of the material directly to the United States.
Iran would further commit to not operating underground nuclear facilities and submit to an enhanced inspections regime including snap inspections by UN investigators.
In exchange, the U.S. would gradually lift all economic sanctions on Iran and releasing billions of dollars in Iranian funds frozen around the world. Both sides would also lift their respective blockades on the Strait of Hormuz — the critical shipping chokepoint whose closure has disrupted global oil markets since the war began. Oil prices dipped below $100 a barrel Wednesday on news of the potential deal.
The memorandum would declare an end to hostilities and trigger a 30-day intensive negotiation period to finalize a permanent agreement. If those talks collapse, U.S. forces would immediately restore the blockade and resume military action.
Trump’s chief negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been leading the American side both directly and through Pakistani mediators.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the negotiations “highly complex and technical” Tuesday, adding that some of Iran’s top leaders are “insane.” He made clear the U.S. would not accept vague, halfhearted concessions or an unenforceable deal.
“We have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” Rubio said.
Trump spelled out the alternative in unmistakable terms Wednesday on Truth Social, saying the U.S. military offensive known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran agrees to the deal — but that failure means something far worse.
“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” Trump wrote.
He told PBS News the war has “a very good chance of ending” — then added, “if it doesn’t end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them.”
U.S. officials have warned that talks with Iranian forces have collapsed at the last minute before. But the latest development is the closest the two countries have come to an agreement since the war began — and Trump left no doubt about what Iran’s answer needs to be.