Republican candidates are leading polls in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom and threatening to flip California red — a stunning development that has sent shockwaves through one of the nation’s largest deep blue states.
An Emerson College Polling survey released Wednesday found former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, leading the crowded field with 17%, followed by Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — another Republican — both tied at 14%.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted February 13-14 has former Rep. Katie Porter at 10%, billionaire Tom Steyer at 9%, and 21% of voters undecided.
“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38%) and Chad Bianco (37%), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate.”
California’s top-two primary system allows the two candidates with the most votes to advance to November regardless of party—raising the mathematical possibility that two Republicans could make the runoff if Democrats continue splitting their vote among multiple candidates.
Democratic data analyst Paul Mitchell, who drew California’s Proposition 50 congressional redistricting maps, said there’s an 12-18% chance of a Republican-versus-Republican general election based on current polling.
“For frame of reference, an 18% chance is about equivalent to the chances of San Francisco being fogged in during your morning rush hour,” Mitchell posted on social media.
“If there was a 12% chance of me getting into an accident driving over here, we’d be doing this by Zoom,” Mitchell said. “We have to be concerned in our lives about things that are small probabilities and the Democrat party should be concerned about this small probability that two Republicans make the runoff because it could really politically decimate them for November.”
Mitchell said a Republican-only gubernatorial ballot would also devastate Democratic turnout and potentially cost Democrats control of the U.S. House.
“If two Republicans were on the ballot in November, democratic turnout would be so decimated that it would dramatically impact the politics statewide and potentially nationally,” Mitchell said. “It could, in a worst case scenario, mean Democrats don’t take back the House because California had this fluky outcome of a primary.”
Sheriff Bianco told the Daily Caller he wants “the best chances of ending the radical-left’s reign of terror” to save California.
“We have a plan to win this election, whether it’s one Republican or two Republicans,” Bianco said. “Anyone whose intention is to save California would try and get two Republicans through the primary, or at least see how long the polling holds.”
Hilton said the poll “confirms what we’re seeing on the ground at our Town Halls up and down the state.”
“When people see the clear contrast between 16 years of Democrat one-party rule that have given us the highest poverty, highest unemployment and highest cost of living in America and Steve Hilton’s positive, practical ‘Califordable’ plan: $3.00 gas, cutting electric bills in half, your first $100-grand tax free, a home you can afford to buy, Steve’s message wins hands down,” Hilton said.
Since December, Hilton’s support increased by five points, Swalwell increased by two points, and Steyer increased by five points. Porter’s support decreased by one point.
The Emerson poll found 44% approve of Newsom’s job performance while 45% disapprove—a three-point drop in approval and a six-point rise in disapproval since December.
At least nine Democrats are running including Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Controller Betty Yee, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond.
“Nobody really has broken from the pack,” Republican strategist Tim Rosales said.