CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten says Vice President JD Vance is already lapping the field in the upcoming 2028 presidential race.
During a segment on “CNN News Central,” Enten said Monday that Vance has surged far ahead with several polls finding Vance emerging as the strong early 2028 contender, even against other big Republican names.
“These guys are running already, even if they haven’t formally declared. They’re already running, and JD Vance is running well ahead of the field,” Enten said.
“Top chances to be the 2028 GOP pres nominee, the prediction market odds. Look at this. JD Vance, 48% chance. Nobody else is even close. Marco Rubio is way back at 12%, and no one else is even above a 5% chance of being the 2028 GOP nominee.”
Rubio, who is also rumored as a big name for the Republican ticket, has ruled out running for president in 2028 if Vance does end up seeking the Republican nomination.
“If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio told Vanity Fair earlier this month.
Despite no names officially declaring a run for the White House in 2028, Enten said early polling and prediction-market data already shows Vance dominating the 2028 Republican field that is still well away from being formed.
“JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are going around in go-karts at this point. JD Vance is the clear heavy favorite at this time,” Enten said.
Enten said Vance’s commanding position in 2028 GOP prediction markets reflects hard polling data, pointing to a dominant 51% showing in early New Hampshire surveys that leave the rest of the field trailing by more than 40 points.
“This number is not coming out of nowhere. And I will note, of course, you know, he’s not at 50% plus yet. But when nobody else is even close, that makes you a clear heavy favorite. And there’s a reason why. Just take a look at New Hampshire, right? The first in the nation primary. I mean, take a look here. JD Vance at 51%. The next closest is Nikki Haley, who’s at 9. I mean, what is that?” Enten asked.
“That’s 42 points ahead of the pack. Tulsi Gabbard is at 8 in the First in the Nation primary. JD Vance, you know, running 42 points ahead. There’s a reason why he’s such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president.”
Vance has led early 2028 polling since at least October, signaling sustained strength well before the race formally begins.
Even against potential Democratic challengers, an Emerson College survey shows Vance narrowly ahead of Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 46% to 45%, with 10% of voters undecided.
Despite the early polling numbers, Republican strategist and fellow CNN analyst Scott Jennings said it will likely fall to Vance to define the party’s direction as its presumptive nominee.
Jennings argued Vance will need to clearly distance himself from media figures he said profit from outrage, hate, and conspiracy theories.