A special election next week in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is shaping up as a surprisingly competitive race, and could be an important bellweather heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats are hoping to continue their over-performance in 2025 elections, while Republicans work to hold a district President Trump won by 22 points.
California Rep. Nancy Pelosi may be on her way out of the House of Representatives, but a last minute Democratic upset in deep red Tennessee would be fitting revenge for Pelosi against her longtime Republican rivals.
Republican Matt Van Epps, a former Tennessee General Services Commissioner and Army veteran, leads Democrat Aftyn Behn 48% to 46% in the most recent Emerson College poll, within the survey’s margin of error. When undecided voters are included, Van Epps leads 49% to 47%.
Take a look –
NEW: TENNESSEE 7TH DISTRICT POLL with @thehill
Matt Van Epps (R) 48%
Aftyn Behn (D) 46%
Other 2%
5% undecidedWatch: https://t.co/tILVZAjGD7https://t.co/HPANR32OP0
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 26, 2025
The December 2 election will fill the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to take a private sector job. Like Trump, Green won the district in 2024 by more than 20 points.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
The close polling has triggered a flood of outside spending in what would normally be considered a safe Republican seat. Super PACs have now spent more than $7 million on the race, according to Tennessee Lookout.
MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump, has spent more than a million dollars backing Van Epps. The liberal House Majority PAC spent $1 million on television and digital ads supporting Behn, marking the super PAC’s first spending on a special election this year.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Behn earlier in November. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin also knocked on doors in the district. On the Republican side, RNC Chair Joe Gruters has made appearances supporting Van Epps.
The Van Epps campaign expressed confidence despite the tight polling.
“Tennesseans are fired up to stop radical Aftyn Behn on Tuesday, December 2nd. Aftyn supports higher taxes, defunding and eliminating the police, transgender surgeries for minors, and even believes men can get pregnant. With strong conservative turnout, Matt Van Epps will win next Tuesday and work with President Trump to lower the cost of living for hardworking Tennessee families,” the campaign said in a statement to Newsweek.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson said the cash influx proves how desperate Democrats are.
“Democrats are so desperate they’ll burn cash in a district redder than a Tennessee sunset just to distract from Aftyn Behn’s radical agenda. While they waste resources chasing a fantasy, Matt Van Epps is laser-focused on fighting for families, securing the border, and unleashing American energy.”
The Cook Political Report initially rated the district as “Solidly Republican” but has since shifted it to “Likely Republican.”
The district stretches west from Nashville and includes parts of downtown Nashville that are heavily Democratic, as well as Republican strongholds in surrounding counties. Franklin, in Williamson County, is a wealthy Republican suburban area. Montgomery County, anchored by Clarksville, is a swing area and often serves as a bellwether for the district.
Turnout will be crucial in the race. Early voting data shows Republican turnout dropped more than 80% in many Nashville precincts compared to the primary, as well as in much of Clarksville and surrounding rural areas. Low turnout in special elections typically benefits Democrats, whose voters tend to be more motivated in off-year contests.
Tennessee GOP Chair Scott Golden acknowledged the turnout challenge.
“Anytime you have a special election that is bracketed by the Thanksgiving holiday, you can’t afford to take a day off. I think if there’s concern, it’s just that people aren’t aware that they have the opportunity to vote right now,” Golden said.
William Lyons, professor at the Howard Baker School of Public Affairs at the University of Tennessee, told Newsweek that turnout has been low so far and there is “no evidence” to suggest a Democratic surge.
“Unless there is an Election Day surprise of some sort, the election is trending to the normal vote for the district and a Van Epps win by a comfortable margin,” Lyons said.
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, meaning the outcome will not change party control but could make the GOP majority even slimmer if Democrats pull off an upset.
Early voting ran through Wednesday, November 26. Election Day is Tuesday, December 2.