Republicans enter the 2026 midterm elections defending 22 Senate seats compared to Democrats’ 13… and despite the so-called “six-year itch,” the GOP has a significant advantage heading into the elections, analysts say.
Only one Republican seat sits in a state Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024.
The GOP currently holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate, which means Democrats need to flip four seats to reclaim control and can afford to lose none of their own – a very tall order.
Senator Susan Collins of Maine represents the only Republican defending a seat in Harris territory. On the other hand, Democrats must protect two seats in states President Donald Trump won — Georgia with Senator Jon Ossoff and Michigan, where Senator Gary Peters announced his retirement.
Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote means Republicans can lose up to three seats and keep their majority.
Democrats have no margin for error.
The 2026 election falls during Trump’s sixth year as president, something political scientists call the “six-year itch,” when voters historically punish the president’s party in their second midterm.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse won his Rhode Island seat in 2006 during President George W. Bush’s sixth year.
“President Bush was very popular and seemed to have the wind at his back, and it seemed like it was an uphill struggle,” Whitehouse said. Republicans lost six Senate seats that year.
Senator Joni Ernst captured her Iowa seat in 2014 during President Barack Obama’s sixth year. Republicans gained nine Senate seats, the largest pickup since 1980.
“It was a fun year,” Ernst said. “I just think the American people were ready for a change.”
Bill Clinton remains the only two-term president since Reconstruction who avoided major Senate losses in his sixth year. Democrats held even in 1998.
Maine features Collins seeking her sixth term. She has never faced a midterm under a Republican president, except 2002 when Bush held 63 percent approval after September 11.
North Carolina has an open seat after Senator Thom Tillis’ retirement. Former Governor Roy Cooper declared his candidacy in July.
Ossoff narrowly won his Georgia seat 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent in a 2020 runoff. Trump carried Georgia by a much larger three percentage points in 2024.
On the other side, Michigan’s open seat created by Peters’ retirement gives Republicans a target. Peters won reelection in 2020 by just 1.7 percentage points, 49.9 percent to 48.2 percent. Trump won Michigan by nearly three percentage points in 2024.
Two special elections will fill partial terms. Ohio will elect someone to complete Vance’s term, with former Senator Sherrod Brown challenging the appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted, and Florida will fill former Senator Marco Rubio’s seat after he became Secretary of State.
Congressional approval stands at just 20 percent, according to Ballotpedia’s polling average.