In Donald Trump’s home state of New York, all signs are pointing to one of his closest political allies becoming the next governor of the Empire State.
Upstate New York Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who was also Trump’s top pick for US Ambassador to the United Nations, is running neck-and-neck in a hypothetical race for governor against Democratic incumbent and Trump rival Kathy Hochul, according to a poll reported by the New York Post.
Hochul up for reelection next year would have the support of 43% of New Yorkers with Stefanik pulling 42% according to the independent survey by polling firm co/efficient.
About 15% of the electorate is still undecided, according to the report.
In a potential Republican primary for governor in 2026, Stefanik has a dominant edge with 56% of voters, with Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler receiving only 9% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with 8%, the poll found.
Hochul had only a 30% approval rating among the 1,163 likely voters, while 57% disapproved in the survey.
President Trump fared much better in the poll, with a 44% favorability rating among New York voters while and 49% disapproved.
Hochul’s favorability numbers were a far worse result than the 44% favorability reported in a Siena College poll just released last Tuesday.
co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce said the outcome of the 2026 gubernatorial race will depend on where Trump and the ruling Republicans in Congress stand nationally heading into the midterm elections.
During his first term as president, Republicans were trounced in New York in the 2018 “blue wave” midterm elections.
Then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo won re-election to a third term in a landslide as his fellow Democrats picked up seats in the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, Republicans were knocked out of power in the state Senate.
Hochul’s campaign dismissed the newest poll and vowed the incumbent would trounce Stefanik, if she decides to run for governor.
“Elise Stefanik represents the worst of Washington extremism — a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman.
“We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record — and fast-track her unemployment once and for all.”
No Republican has officially announced that they are running for governor next year.
The last Republican governor in New York was former Gov. George Pataki, who served three terms between 1995 and 2007. Lee Zeldin, current head of the federal Environmental Protection Agency and former congressman from Long Island, mounted a serious challenge to Hochul in the governor’s race in 2022, nearly landing what would have been a major upset in the heavily Democratic state.