House Republicans pushed forward President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package Sunday night despite serious concerns about its impact on the federal deficit. The bill cleared a key hurdle in the House Budget Committee with a 17-16 party-line vote, setting up a potential floor vote before Memorial Day.
The package, which Republicans are calling “one big, beautiful bill,” would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, boost military and border security funding, and impose new restrictions on Medicaid and nutrition assistance programs.
Four conservative Republicans who initially blocked the bill Friday switched to voting “present,” allowing it to advance after receiving written assurances about changes to key provisions.
“Tonight, after a great deal of work and engagement over the weekend, the Budget Committee advanced a reconciliation bill that lays the foundation for much needed tax relief, border security, and important spending reductions and reforms,” said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, one of the conservatives who held up the bill Friday.
Speaker Mike Johnson made a surprise appearance at the late-night committee meeting, personally talking with the holdouts before expressing confidence about the bill’s prospects.
“I think what is about to happen here is that every member, every Republican member, will give a vote that allows us to proceed forward, and we count that as a big win tonight,” Johnson told reporters.
While establishment Republican leaders celebrate the advancement, budget analysts warn that the legislation would significantly worsen America’s fiscal outlook.
The bill would increase projected budget deficits by a staggering $3 trillion through 2034, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
“On the horizon that investors care about, which is the first four years, it makes it worse,” said analyst Don Schneider of Piper Sandler.
The bill’s $4 trillion in tax cuts would vastly outweigh its approximately $1.6 trillion in spending reductions, leading to a large net deficit increase despite Republicans’ campaign promises to reduce government red ink.
“While Republicans were campaigning on reducing spending and controlling the growth in the debt, once they put pen to paper, their real priorities demonstrate that they care a lot more about cutting taxes,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the libertarian Cato Institute.
Establishment Republicans defend the fiscal impact by claiming that economic growth will generate enough additional tax revenue to offset the costs.
White House budget director Russell Vought called the spending cuts “historic” and said the bill “ends decades of fiscal futility and gets us winning again.”
Rep. Jay Obernolte, R-Calif., a Budget Committee member, argued that the Republican plan would strengthen the nation’s fiscal footing.
“If you have to pick between a higher-tax, higher-spending regime and a lower-tax, lower-spending regime, the latter is always better for economic growth,” he said.
Democrats strongly oppose the package. Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the committee’s ranking Democrat, pressed Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, to disclose what “side deals” had been struck to win over conservative holdouts.
“Deliberations continue at this very moment. They will continue on into the week and I suspect right up until we put this big, beautiful bill on the floor of the House,” Arrington responded, adding that there was no official score yet from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The conservative holdouts secured commitments from Republican leadership to accelerate Medicaid work requirements, which were initially scheduled to take effect in 2029, and to more quickly eliminate clean energy tax credits passed during the Biden administration.
“Importantly the bill now will move Medicaid work requirements forward and reduces the availability of future subsidies under the green new scam,” Roy said in his statement after the vote.
Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., confirmed to Fox News that conservatives received the assurances in writing.
The bill now heads to the House Rules Committee, where amendments can be offered. That committee includes two of the conservative holdouts – Roy and Norman – giving them additional leverage to shape the final bill into a more reasonable spending package.
Even if the bill passes the House, it faces significant hurdles in the Senate, where Republicans have indicated they plan to make substantial changes. Any modifications would require another House vote before the legislation could reach Trump’s desk.
Johnson said on Fox News that House and Senate leaders were “in close coordination” on the final product on Sunday.
“We hope that they don’t make many modifications to it,” he said. Republican leaders have set a Fourth of July target for getting the bill signed into law.
The fiscal concerns come as the nation’s debt picture has worsened significantly. Publicly held federal debt stands at about $29 trillion, nearly double the level when Trump and Republicans passed the 2017 tax law. Nearly $1 out of every $7 in federal spending now goes toward interest payments on that debt.
Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday, saying it didn’t expect Congress to produce meaningful deficit reductions.