The polls have predicted a toss-up in the U.S. Senate, despite a nationally favorable environment for Republicans.
But some pollsters are predicting a 2016-style polling error. They’re warning the pundits to watch out for a new bloc: the “submerged voter.”
Nate Cohn, a pollster from The New York Times, is ringing the alarm bells.
“The warning sign is flashing again,” Cohn wrote on Sept. 12. “Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.”
In Wisconsin, Democrat Mandela Barnes is polling seven points ahead of Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in Marquette Law School’s reputable survey, despite Johnson’s 12-year incumbency and his relatively high favorability. Two years ago, Biden was polling ahead of expectations by a similar margin, according to Cohn.
Democrats remain optimistic. They defend the polling process by highlighting the surprising precision of the 2018 polls. They also point out that certain states, like Georgia, were polled accurately during the last presidential election.
However, Democrats are currently struggling in the states known for more fair polling. For U.S. Senate in Georgia, incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock has found himself in a tie with Republican candidate Herschel Walker, according to a recent poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Plus, another expert has an explanation for the pollsters’ uncharacteristic accuracy in 2018.
Robert C. Cahaly works as the chief pollster for Trafalgar Group, a political research firm claiming the title “the consistently most accurate pollster of ‘16, ‘18, ‘20 and ‘21 election cycles.”
On Twitter, Cahaly performed an autopsy on the polling errors from 2016.
Hillary Clinton called conservatives a “basket of deplorables” that year. With that remark, Clinton intimidated these voters from responding to pollsters, according to Calahy.
Some pundits call these people “shy Trump voters.” Calahy calls them “submerged voters.”
No one made any remarks this intimidating during the 2018 midterms, an election cycle with more accurate polling. So no one submerged any voters.
However, Biden called “MAGA Republicans” a threat to democracy in an infamous speech earlier this month. The month prior, he used the phrase “semi-fascism.”
Calahy blames Biden for skewing the polls by “submerging” some voters.
Critics have questioned Calahy’s disorganized methods and highlighted his recent failures. They’ve lambasted him for taking into account voter enthusiasm, and they’ve pointed out last year’s inaccurate prediction about a tight race for California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
But on Nov. 8, we’ll see for sure whether Calahy is right about the polls.
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
I call this new group “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
The Horn editorial team