by Frank Holmes, reporter
We’re 18 days away from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, but political campaign veterans say candidate may not make it to the starting gate.
The campaign—which had all the signs of making a huge impact just months ago—may fold up its tent and endorse another candidate.
Vivek Ramaswamy has pulled all his campaign advertising off TV in Iowa and New Hampshire, just over two weeks away from Iowa voters select a candidate.
That looks like a huge step backwards for the Ohio businessman, who had set aside between $10 million and $12 million for advertising in those two states: up to $8 million in Iowa and $4 million in New Hampshire.
The Iowa caucus is January 15, and the New Hampshire primary takes place the next week, on January 23.
With just days to go, Ramaswamy has actually spent only spent $2.2 million—and NBC News reported, that’s all he’s going to spend…a face the candidate confirmed personally.
“Presidential TV ad spending is idiotic,” give campaigns low return on investment, and are little more than “a trick that political consultants use to bamboozle candidates who suffer from low IQ,” said Vivek Ramaswamy on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Ramaswamy’s right about that part: Beltway campaign consultants often talk candidates into spending enormous amounts of money on television spots, which means campaigns have to pay millions to campaign TV production firms—which often give the campaign consultants a kickback for the referral.
“We’re doing it differently. Spending $$ in a way that follows data,” Ramaswamy continued.
Presidential TV ad spending is idiotic, low-ROI & a trick that political consultants use to bamboozle candidates who suffer from low IQ.
We’re doing it differently. Spending $$ in a way that follows data…apparently a crazy idea in US politics.
Big surprise coming on Jan 15. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/i2X7Q5d2T9
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) December 27, 2023
Vivek’s campaign spokeswoman, Tricia McLaughlin, filled in the gaps left by her candidate’s social media post.
“We have intentionally structured this way so that we have the ability to be nimble and hypertargeted in our ad spending,” she told NBC News.
“We are focused on bringing out the voters we’ve identified,” she explained. And the “best way to reach them is using addressable advertising, mail, text, live calls, and doors to communicate with our voters on Vivek’s vision for America, making their plan to caucus and turning them out.”
But something Vivek said at the end of his X post raised eyebrows: He teased the fact that he had a “big surprise coming January 15” — and Obama’s closest pollster, David Axelrod, thinks he knows exactly what it is.
Axelrod wanted to know if the campaign thinks it’s “just hard to capture his self-proclaimed greatness in 30 seconds ads? Or…maybe he’s fixing to drop out and endorse Trump.”
Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign stops all TV ad spending less than a month before Iowa and New Hampshire.
Just hard to capture his self-proclaimed greatness in 30 seconds ads?
Or…maybe he's fixing to drop out and endorse Trump. https://t.co/SGDLC3nK1S— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) December 26, 2023
Observant election-watchers remember that Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., suspended all his TV ads shortly before dropping out of the 2024 presidential race.
“We aren’t going to waste our money,” Trust In the Mission PAC (TIM PAC) told donors in a memo just weeks before the South Carolina Republican bowed out of the race.
Democrats have accused Vivek of being a stalking horse for Trump to attract voters from other candidates—but it looks as though the NeverTrump movement has settled on former UN Ambassador Niki Haley.
Ramaswamy took his best shot at Haley during the last Republican presidential debate-minus-Trump, when he asked her to name the three provinces in eastern Ukraine where she thought U.S. troops should fight.
The dazzled Haley just stared off into space and pouted, unable to answer.
But it didn’t hurt her appeal: In fact, Haley’s now just four points behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire.
Haley is the chosen candidate of the Koch Brothers network and a meeting of deep-pocketed GOP megadonors who met at a secretive meeting held in Utah and led by Senator Mitt Romney and former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.
If Vivek drops out, his supporters would gravitate toward Donald Trump, bolstering him before his showdown with Haley — and possibly burying her candidacy in the Granite State.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who also cuts into Trump’s lead in the early states, doesn’t appear to have a path to the nomination…but he also doesn’t appear to have a plan to quit yet.
Trump has a prohibitive lead in the Iowa caucus and is trouncing Haley in her home state of South Carolina by 30 points.
If he can deny her a victory in New Hampshire, he’ll walk to the nomination and show that his billionaire donor opponents wasted their money—and Vivek Ramaswamy’s move could make all the difference.
As for the 45th president, he has confidence his opponent will fall into rank behind him…but maybe not just yet.
“He will, I am sure, Endorse me,” President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social. “But Vivek is a good man, and is not done yet!”
Do you think Vivek Ramaswamy is preparing to withdraw from the 2024 presidential primaries? Do you think he should? If he does, how do you think Donald Trump should react if he’s elected president?
Frank Holmes is a veteran journalist and an outspoken conservative that talks about the news that was in his weekly article, “On The Holmes Front.”