An endorsement from President Donald Trump is worth a lot in Republican primaries.
But is it worth more than $100 million in Georgia? Can it propel a congressman past an insurgent outsider in Alabama? Can it transform a candidate into a front-runner in Oklahoma?
Trump has been at the center of this year’s midterm campaigns, and his influence will be tested in different ways Tuesday as four states and the District of Columbia hold primaries.
Among Democrats, the primaries will hinge on longstanding divides between progressives and moderates as the party tries to chart the best path forward to November.
Here are a few things to watch as voters go to the polls in Alabama, California, the District of Columbia, Georgia and Oklahoma.
How much is a Trump endorsement worth?
Nothing is certain in politics, but a “complete and total endorsement” from Trump is about the surest path possible to winning a Republican primary.
Rick Jackson is testing that truism in his bid for Georgia governor. The healthcare tycoon, who faces Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in a runoff, has provided most of the $100 million-plus that his campaign has spent to convince Republican primary voters to overlook Trump’s advice.
Trump endorsed Jones more than a year ago and reiterated his support last week, praising Jones’ “Courage and Wisdom” in a social media post. Rarely has the power of Trump’s endorsement been tested against such a lopsided spending disparity.
Jones finished first with 38% and Jackson second with 33% in the May 19 primary. Now the election to lead one of the nation’s preeminent battleground states will be decided by the voters who didn’t back either of them.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s Republican primary for governor will test Trump’s endorsement in a different way. There, the president weighed in late, throwing his support two weeks ago to former state Sen. Mike Mazzei among a crowded field without a clear front-runner. The race will go to a runoff if no candidate gets a majority.
Trump is used to getting his way, but earlier this month his choice for governor of Iowa, U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, lost to Zach Lahn in the state’s primary.
MAGA becomes the insider movement and faces an outsider
Trump rose to power as an outsider, the head of a “Make America Great Again” movement keen to bulldoze the old political order.
But now the onetime insurgent sits atop a sprawling establishment. What happens when he endorses an insider candidate?
That question is at the heart of the Republican primary runoff for Alabama’s open Senate seat.
Trump is backing U.S. Rep. Barry Moore, a three-term congressman who has promised to be “a warrior for President Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda” if elected.
He faces former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, who is presenting himself as a Washington outsider, trying to harness the anti-establishment fervor that propelled Trump to power to defeat Trump’s preferred candidate.
Alabama is a Republican stronghold, so whoever wins the primary will be heavily favored to prevail in November over either candidate in Tuesday’s Democratic runoff, business owner Dakarai Larriett and lawyer Everett Wess.
The seat is being vacated by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, the Republican nominee in the race for Alabama governor.
DC mayor’s race features a socialist and a new voting system
One of the leading Democratic contenders in the District of Columbia mayor’s race, Janeese Lewis George, describes herself as a democratic socialist, a political denomination that became more prominent with Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaigns.
George’s bid for the party’s nomination is not so far removed from democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s upset victory for New York City mayor last year. And, as in New York, the race has drawn national attention, including the president’s.
Trump indicated days before the mayoral primary election that he might take over the city if George wins, saying “we won’t put up with it.” George called Trump’s threat “an attack on democracy itself.”
Some residents were frustrated that the mayor, Muriel Bowser, didn’t push back enough on the administration. Part of George’s platform on her website, which heavily focuses on affordability, is to “protect Home Rule” with “leaders that stand up and fight back, not shrink in the face of injustice.”
George and another Democrat, Kenyan McDuffie, who’s focused on public safety, are two of the seven candidates whose race will be the first decided with D.C.’s new ranked choice voting system.
Like a handful of other places, D.C. voters will rank the candidates on a ballot, and if no one crosses 50% of the popular vote, then residents’ second choices come into play. That happened in Maine, where election officials started counting ranked choice votes for governor and a key House race three days after election night.
In D.C., Democratic officials have warned the new system could delay results by days.
The Associated Press contributed to this article