A supercomputer simulation of the 2025 Masters Tournament predicts that golf fans will witness a two-player showdown at Augusta National next week, with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy holding a commanding advantage over the rest of the field.
Oddspedia’s simulation, which ran the tournament 1,000 times using data on betting odds, strokes gained, driving distance, and accuracy, gives Scheffler a 33.96% chance of winning his third green jacket. McIlroy follows with a 23.63% probability of completing his career Grand Slam with a long-awaited Masters victory.
The most striking finding from the simulation is the significant gap between the top two contenders and the rest of the 94-player field. Together, Scheffler and McIlroy were victorious in 57.59% of all simulations – meaning they have a better combined chance of winning than all other competitors put together.
Bryson DeChambeau emerged as a distant third favorite with a 5.14% chance of victory, despite being ranked sixth or seventh by major sportsbooks. This represents one of the more notable discrepancies between the computer model and betting markets.
The simulation appears to value recent form, with McIlroy having already claimed two titles this season while leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total. Scheffler, though winless in 2025, has demonstrated remarkable consistency with a recent second-place finish at the Houston Open and four other Top 20 results in six starts.
For bettors, the combined win probability of 57.59% for Scheffler and McIlroy significantly exceeds the 33.56% implied by current betting odds, potentially suggesting value in backing either of the world’s top two players.
With just one week remaining until golf’s first major championship of the year, all eyes will be on Augusta National to see if the supercomputer’s prediction of a Scheffler-McIlroy duel proves accurate, or if another contender can defy the odds and claim the coveted green jacket.