Millions of Social Security recipients will face the first impact of the government shutdown on their earned benefits.
Recipients will be forced to wait to learn how much their monthly checks will increase next year due to the ongoing government shutdown, leaving many seniors unable plan their budgets ahead of time. The longer the shutdown continues, there’s an increased risk that no increase can be counted on.
The Social Security Administration was scheduled to announce the 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 15, but the announcement has been pushed back after the Bureau of Labor Statistics furloughed most of its staff when the government shut down October 1.
“These are already confusing enough times for retirees,” Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League, told reporters. “Changing the date of the COLA announcement—even by just a week—doesn’t make things any easier. Seniors are trying to budget for next year, and delays like this only add to the uncertainty.”
The Social Security Administration said it plans to announce the 2026 COLA on October 24, once September inflation data becomes available.
“The Social Security Administration will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment on October 24 as well,” an SSA spokesperson said.
The agency assured beneficiaries that the actual payment increase itself is still planned to take effect January 1, 2026.
The Senior Citizens League projects the 2026 COLA will be approximately 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% increase beneficiaries received in 2025. That would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by about $54, from $2,008 to $2,062.
The COLA is based on third-quarter inflation data from July through September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended all operations on October 1 when the federal government shutdown and it furloughed employees.
This suspension impacts the calculation of economic data and production of reports.
This is only the second time a government shutdown has delayed the COLA announcement. In 2013, a shutdown pushed the announcement back to October 30.
While the delay affects only the announcement timing, seniors will begin to face additional disruptions from the shutdown. The Social Security Administration has suspended several in-office services, including replacing Medicare cards, issuing proof-of-income letters, updating earnings records, and processing overpayments.
“Thankfully, Social Security payments will be made on schedule,” Benton said. “However, some in-office Social Security services are suspended. Delays in access, communication breakdowns, and loss of trusted services erode the stability that older adults count on. Seniors deserve a fully functioning government that puts their well-being first—not another round of political gridlock.”
Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments are able to continue during the shutdown because they have permanent funding that is not affected by the congressional appropriations process. More than 74 million Americans receive monthly Social Security payments.
The projected 2.7% increase would be much lower than recent years when inflation spiked dramatically. Beneficiaries received an 8.7% COLA in 2023 and a 5.9% increase in 2022. The 2026 adjustment is roughly in line with the 20-year average of 2.6%.
Many seniors say even a 2.7% increase will not keep pace with their rising costs.
“They’re feeling the pinch, but the inflation numbers aren’t necessarily showing it,” Benton said.
Medicare Part B premiums are projected to increase by $21.50 per month to $206.50 in 2026, which would eat into most of the increase before it reaches seniors’ pockets. Part B premiums are typically deducted directly from Social Security checks.
“When you’re accruing over years and years of retirement, a tenth of a percent can make a difference,” Benton said.
Chris Orestis, president of retirement planning platform Retirement Genius, warned that there’s still a looming threat to the January payment increase if the shutdown continues.
“If the government isn’t open by January 1 we’re in a whole different world,” Orestis said.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days during President Donald Trump’s first term, beginning in December 2018. The current shutdown began October 1 when Congress failed to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government.