In March, a Harvard/Harris Poll found President Joe Biden losing to former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical rematch.
At the time, the pundits warned against reading too much into one poll.
“While I don’t put any stock at all in 2024 polling in 2022, it was definitely a psychological blow for Democrats to see the recent Harvard Harris Poll showing Trump winning a Trump-Biden match by 6 points,” Ezra Klein, a columnist for The New York Times, said on his podcast last month.
But now other polls are starting to replicate that same result.
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On Thursday, a Rasmussen Reports poll found Trump winning over Biden… by a double-digit margin.
According to the poll 50 percent of likely voters would vote for Trump in an election held today. Only 36 percent would vote for Biden. The pollsters neglected to elaborate on the remaining 14 percent.
Meanwhile, just 42 percent of likely voters report a favorable opinion of Biden, according to the poll. And only 28 percent want him to run again.
The poll looks even more bleak when controlling for party affiliation. Among members of the president’s own party, the 77 percent of likely voters hold a favorable view of Biden, but only 49 percent want him to run for reelection.
Granted, the poll also includes some silver linings for the Democrats.
Namely, Biden would fare slightly better in a match against other Republican, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Only 46 percent of likely voters would vote for DeSantis. 35 percent would vote for Biden, and 11 percent would vote for “someone else.”
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Plus, the pollsters finished their survey on Monday, before the Supreme Court leak on Tuesday. They specified that the increased importance of Roe v. Wade on upcoming elections has more evenly divided the voters. 48 percent of likely voters support overturning the decision, and 45 percent would prefer to keep the decision in place.
That would help Biden. Before the leak, 73 percent of Democrats would have vote for Biden, but a whopping 89 of Republicans would have voted for Trump. In other words, Biden has more to gain from the increased partisanship, due to his own party’s lower opinion of him.
The pollsters reviewed census data, and then they screened likely voters by asking about “voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.”
They surveyed 1,004 likely voters between April 28 and May 2, all through voice recordings. They estimated the margin of error as three points.
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The pundits may be advising against putting “any stock at all in 2024 polling in 2022.” However, this Rasmussen poll asked about a hypothetical election held today… and it revealed a wipeout for Biden.
The Horn editorial team