Usually, Maryland polls as one of the three most heavily Democratic states in the continental U.S. In 2020, Joe Biden received more than twice as many votes as Donald Trump.
Now, the Old Line State is set to flip in the 2024 election, polls show. The GOP’s likely U.S. Senate nominee is polling more than 10 points ahead of his Democratic competitors.
Pollsters at The Washington Post and Monmouth University surveyed 1,004 registered voters by telephone, and they found former Gov. Larry Hogan enjoying a landslide lead.
Hogan, a Republican, is running against two potential Democrats: U.S. Rep. David Trone and County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.
According to this poll, Hogan would beat Trone by 12 points in a one-on-one election held today. He would beat Alsobrooks by a whopping 14 points. Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat, isn’t running for re-election.
What’s more, the pollsters worded the question specifically to inform respondents of Hogan’s party affiliation. They called him “Larry Hogan, the Republican.”
Hogan served as governor from 2015 until last year, and he boasts high name recognition. By contrast, most registered voters either reported “no opinion” of Alsobrooks or skipped the question about her, and 46 percent did the same about Trone.
61 percent of registered Democrats reported a favorable opinion of Hogan, but 39 percent of Democrats, and 39 percent of registered Democrats, have yet to pick a primary candidate.
“The big issue for the Democrats right now is that many people in the state don’t know who either of these candidates are,” pollster Michael Hanmer told the Post.
Hogan, a “Never Trump” voter, left office with an approval rating above 80 percent, and he remains popular in Maryland.
Most registered voters wanted the Democrats to control the Senate, according to this poll, but a significant number are planning to vote for Hogan, anyway. 18 percent of respondents would vote for Hogan while hoping for Chuck Schumer to keep his job.
Besides name recognition, Hogan is enjoying some momentum after entering the race later than his rivals. He announced his campaign just last month. By comparison, Trone and Alsobrooks announced their campaigns in May of 2023.
Prior to Hogan’s entry, pundits were describing the race as “sleepy.”
Now, the poll is predicting 84 percent turnout among registered voters.
The Senate Democrats, nationally, are heading for a wipeout. They’re defending seats in several red states, like Ohio and Montana. Plus, some Democrats are facing difficult elections in swing states, like Nevada and Michigan.
Now, the Senate Democrats are facing an unexpectedly tough race in Maryland, even after winning open seat there since 1980.
Some of the pollsters expressed optimism about the Democrats’ prospects in Maryland.
Hamner pointed out that Trone and Alsobrooks are both polling favorably in their own constituencies, and he emphasized that the Democrats look likely to coalesce after the primary.
“They seem to be doing fine in the places where people know them,” Hanmer said. “It’s just around the corner now for the primary, but there’s still plenty of time for both of them to do things differently.”
Still, the Senate Democrats are facing trouble in unfamiliar territory.
The Horn editorial team