U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, will likely defeat the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka… despite not winning the popular vote.
Tshibaka hold’s an edge over Murkowski in the votes released late Tuesday. The race also included Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley. Kelley in September suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka.
But that’s the first round of Alaska’s new ranked voting system.
Under ranked voting, ballots are counted in rounds. A candidate can win outright with more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round. If no one hits that threshold, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Voters who chose that candidate as their top pick have their votes count for their next choice.
Rounds continue until two candidates remain, and whoever has the most votes wins. Tabulation rounds are expected to take place on Nov. 23.
With 75 percent of the vote counted, Tshibaka enjoys a narrow lead but is still 5.6 percentage points away from the critically important 50 percent threshold.
Murkowski voted to impeach former President Donald Trump, and so it’s considered very likely that most Democratic voters chose Pat Chesbro first and Murkowski second. With most of Chesbro’s votes going to Murkowski, that would put her over the 50 percent threshold and re-elect her to the U.S. Senate… despite losing the first round.
Throughout the campaign, Murkowski touted her willingness to work across party lines to advance Alaska’s priorities.
Tshibaka argued it is time for a change. She noted that Murkowski has held the Senate seat since 1981; before Lisa Murkowski, it was her father, Frank Murkowski. Tshibaka, after voting on Tuesday, told reporters she was “excited and confident.”
Murkowski in a recent interview said she felt good about the support she’s received but said voter turnout is key. She said in 2010, many of her supporters “kind of took for granted that I was going to be OK,” and she lost her Republican primary to tea party upstart Joe Miller. She ultimately held onto the seat with a general election write-in campaign that year.
This year’s elections were conducted under a new system, approved by voters in 2020, that replaced party primaries with open primaries and instituted ranked voting in general elections. In this year’s August primary, Tshibaka finished second, behind Murkowski, with about 38 percent of the vote.
Chesbro, who joined the race late, struggled to gain traction, but Alaska Democratic Party leaders urged Democrats to “vote their values” and rank her first.
Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the state Department of Administration, said she worked during the campaign to shore up Republican support. She indicated that she did not rank Murkowski on her ballot.
“I didn’t vote her, either,” Murkowski told The Associated Press while sign-waving at an Anchorage intersection Tuesday evening.
“I’m feeling very good,” Murkowski said of her campaign.
Murkowski, who was censured by state Republican party leaders last year, has a reputation as a centrist. She also cast herself as a coalition builder.
Trump, who in that trial was acquitted, last month criticized the Senate Leadership Fund, a third-party group affiliated with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, for running ads against Tshibaka. Tshibaka expressed frustration with the ads, too, saying that money would be better spent helping Republican candidates in other states.
She said she heard from Alaskans turned off by the TV ads and mailers. She has said she would not support McConnell for majority leader and dismissed suggestions she might be marginalized, if elected, in a McConnell-led conference.
Murkowski “can be controlled. I can’t be,” she said. “I think that’s exactly what Alaskans want, is somebody who’s not going to be controlled by D.C. but is an independent voice for Alaska.”
The Associated Press contributed this article