Former Vice President Kamala Harris recently announced she would not run for governor of California, eyeing a 2028 presidential run instead.
Bad news for Harris: That’s not going to happen if voters have a say. In a stunning release, a new poll found California Governor Gavin Newsom holds a growing lead over Harris among the state’s Democratic voters in an early 2028 presidential primary.
Harris also lost the Democratic Party primary badly to Joe Biden in 2019 before she was installed as the party nominee when he was forced out of his 2024 reelection campaign.
The new study, conducted by Politico and The Citrin Center public opinion firm, found on Monday Newsom is the top choice of 25% of California’s Democratic voters in the 2028 Democratic primary. Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee who lost to President Donald Trump, received support from 19% of the state’s Democrats.
The survey included 1,445 registered California voters polled between July 30 and August 11, with 807 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents participating in the Democratic primary portion. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish and included an oversample of Hispanic voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent for the full sample.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg came in third place with 13% support, followed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 10%. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker each received 4% support.
California Representative Ro Khanna, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each earned support from 3% of the state’s Democratic voters.
The poll also measured enthusiasm levels for potential candidates. Among registered Democratic voters, 75% said they felt “excited” about the prospect of Newsom running in the 2028 White House race. A smaller percentage, 67%, said they were “excited” about Harris running for president again.
“There’s affection for her [Harris], but maybe less confidence that she would be a strong candidate,” Jack Citrin, a veteran political science professor at University of California, Berkeley and partner on the poll, told Politico. “[Newsom is] in the news everyday. If you think someone is running, you’re more likely to support them.”
The poll was conducted while Newsom was generating significant media coverage over his ongoing effort to redraw California’s congressional maps. The California governor has launched a redistricting campaign with national implications to counter Republican redistricting efforts in other states, aiming to flip up to five House seats from Republican to Democratic control.
Newsom has acknowledged he might run for president in 2028. In June, the governor did not directly deny that he may make a White House bid, and instead told the Wall Street Journal that he is “not thinking about running,” but it is a “path” that he could see “unfold.”
Harris announced on June 30 that she would not run to succeed Newsom in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, opening the door to widespread speculation about another presidential bid in 2028. Her decision came after losing the 2024 presidential election in a landslide to President Donald Trump.
The Democratic breakdown represents the thinking of voters in California, which serves as the party’s power center and home to the largest number of Democratic voters in the nation. For both Newsom and Harris, winning their home state would be critical to securing the Democratic nomination in 2028 if they decide to run.
Newsom has become one of the Democratic Party’s most forceful and visible critics of President Trump since taking office as governor. He survived a failed recall attempt in 2021 during his time in office and his gubernatorial term is set to end in 2026.
Several other Democratic contenders have started to make moves toward their own potential 2028 runs, though the election cycle remains in its early stages. The California poll offers an early glimpse into Democratic preferences in the nation’s most populous state.
The survey was conducted by Verasight and represents one of the first major polls examining the 2028 Democratic field.
The 2028 presidential race remains more than three years away, and neither Newsom nor Harris has officially announced a campaign.
However, both politicians have taken steps that suggest they are seriously considering White House bids when the next election cycle begins.
Let the showdown begin.