Joe Manchin, the senator from West Virginia, is known for keeping both political parties and his constituents guessing about his next move. With only five months left before the general election, Manchin has not yet declared his candidacy for any office, but he has hinted at potential runs for governor, the Senate, or even the U.S. presidency.
Manchin recently switched his party affiliation from Democrat to independent, saying he wanted to “continue to fight for America’s sensible majority.”
When he registered as an independent, Manchin met a deadline — barely — in West Virginia for candidates to file their political affiliation 60 days prior to an Aug. 1 deadline to run in this year’s election.
The suspicious timing has fueled speculation that he could decide to seek a third term as governor, an office where he was popular. He received nearly 64% of the vote to win his first term in 2004 and 70% of the vote in nabbing a second term in 2008.
In November, he announced he would not run for reelection as a Democrat, and in February, he decided against running for president to avoid being a “spoiler.”
Since winning a special election in 2010, Manchin has been a senator, though he considered returning to the governor’s office in 2016. Instead, he endorsed Jim Justice, who won as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party shortly after taking office. In 2019, Manchin chose to remain in the Senate rather than challenge Justice in the 2020 gubernatorial election.
If Manchin decides to run for governor this year, he would face a rematch with Republican Patrick Morrisey and an awkward campaign showdown with Democrat Steve Williams. West Virginia has become heavily Republican in recent years, with Trump winning the state overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020.
Without Manchin in the Senate race, Republicans are confident they can pick up his seat. By itself, that would result in a 50-50 Senate, with the vice president serving as the tiebreaker.
If Manchin runs for Senate as an independent, he would be running an awkward campaign against both Justice and Democrat Glenn Elliott, whom Manchin had previously endorsed.
Manchin and Justice had a falling-out after Justice switched parties eight months into his first term as governor in 2017. Justice, a wealthy businessman who owns several coal mines, is a staunch supporter of Trump.
If Manchin were to make an independent presidential run, he would need to act quickly, as he has already missed the filing deadline in several states. Another option for Manchin could be the position of West Virginia University President, as the current president, Gordon Gee, plans to retire next June.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.