“On the Holmes Front,” with Frank Holmes
The White House is nervous. The polls are in, and Joe Biden is in deep trouble — not so much from Republicans but from Democrats.
Democratic Party thinkers are holding new polls in their shaking hands that show Democrats are getting ready to bolt on Joe Biden. More members of the president’s own party say they’ve had it, and they’re ready to vote for another Democrat in the primaries… or an independent candidate next November.
Nearly half of all Democrats are thinking about backing someone other than Biden in the fall.
An NBC poll taken June 20 found 45 percent of Democrats are considering a third party candidate in 2024.
That has the Democratic Party’s campaign managers “very, very jumpy about a third party in this race,” according to Bill McInturff, whose polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, did the survey.
That’s the bad news. The worse news for Biden is that he’s unpopular with his party even in the primaries.
The media keep saying Joe Biden faces no “serious” challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination. But his two “minor” challengers—Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson— are now polling at a combined 30%. Most of that is RFK Jr., who consistently ranks between 15 and 20 percent support—up from 10% back in April.
Admitted, RFK Jr. has his work cut out in New Hampshire, where Biden currently has a 59-point lead: 68 percent for Biden vs. nine percent for Kennedy (and eight for Williamson).
But Kennedy is from neighboring Massachusetts, where he’s a legend. Kennedy has higher favorability ratings than any candidate in the race, which means more people are likely to come his way. And Kennedy has a score to settle with Biden over the way Biden has handled the Kennedy family over his 50 years in public life.
Assuming Joe Biden gets through the primaries unscathed, he may face a third party challenger from an even bigger problem: an angry Democrat.
A so-called “moderate”/liberal group called No Labels seems set on fielding a third party candidate next year, and they’ve got their man picked out: West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat.
Manchin really is what Biden pretended to be in 2020: a center-left Democrat. He believes government programs solve a lot of social problems, but he has warned that Biden’s spending would lead to massive inflation—we know how that came out—and he’s not a social justice warrior. He’s against racial division and opposes taxpayer-funding for abortion.
To make Democrats even more jittery, Manchin has spent months in a feud with the president, and months saying he’s thinking about running for president.
Democrats are so worried about how Manchin will impact the 2024 election—and so desperate to keep him, because he’s their only hope to keep control of the Senate—that they’ve been begging him not to run for president.
Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., said even though “I’m encouraging him to run for the Senate every opportunity I get,” Manchin is “still thinking” about a presidential run.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal said a Manchin third party run “certainly could be in favor of Donald Trump.”
“It would be a terrible idea,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo. “It would help Donald Trump.”
When Manchin heard that, Hickenlooper said, “he nodded.”
Manchin knows how it will hurt Biden — and that may be his intention.
The two have been in a fight for months, if not years.
Manchin demanded concessions that would benefit his coal miners back home in West Virginia in exchange for supporting the “Inflation Reduction Act.”
Biden agreed. Manchin voted for it. Then Biden screwed him.
“We’re going to be shutting these plants down all across America and having wind and solar,” Biden said.
Manchin called his comments “offensive and disgusting” and demanded Biden make “an immediate and public apology.”
My statement on comments President Biden made about shutting down coal plants: pic.twitter.com/LEeqrGdwqm
— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 5, 2022
Biden never apologizes for anything—and he didn’t start with Manchin.
Instead, Biden gave the screws another turn. Manchin supported electric vehicles if he agreed they would only benefit U.S.-produced power, like coal.
Biden agreed—then he opened up tax credits that would benefit China.
“The president gave Manchin his word,” an aide familiar with the discussions told Politico this week.
“They’re going to try to screw me,” said Manchin.
Now, maybe Manchin wants to return the favor.
When asked about whether he’d throw his hat in the ring against Joe Biden, Manchin has said the same thing for months: “I don’t rule out anything.” Manchin said he would go all-out in “trying to save the centrist, moderate middle” from Biden and Kamala Harris’ liberalism.
“Everyone thinks about politics first. I don’t. It’s not about the politics,” Manchin insists.
If that’s true, it’s bad for Biden. If Manchin is lying, that’s even worse.
Even a small defection on the Left can doom an unpopular Democratic candidate. Ask Al Gore, who lost the 2000 presidential election by 537 votes in Florida. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader won 97,421 votes in Florida and 2,882,955 votes nationally, or 2.74 percent of all votes cast.
In a close election between two unpopular candidates, a likable, moderate third party candidate can make a huge difference. Ask George H.W. Bush supporters about Ross Perot in 1992.
Even in elections that aren’t close, a third party candidate can make a huge difference.
Ask Jimmy Carter, who faced a third party challenge from a moderate Republican named John Anderson, who picked a moderate Democrat as his running mate.
The two racked up 6.6 percent of the vote — not enough to tip Ronald Reagan’s huge, 44-state landslide, but it would have been enough to spare Jimmy Carter from complete and total humiliation.
Then again, after breaking one agreement after another and ruining his party’s image nationwide, humiliation may be just what Joe Manchin has in mind for Joe Biden.
Frank Holmes is a veteran journalist and an outspoken conservative that talks about the news that was in his weekly article, “On The Holmes Front.”