Don’t pencil in Vice President JD Vance as the odds-on favorite to secure the Republican nomination for the 2028 presidential race.
According to a University of New Hampshire (UNH) Granite State Poll released this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is gaining ground in a hypothetical 2028 GOP nomination matchup with Vance.
Vance stands at 36% support among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with Rubio at 26%, according to the poll results released by Fox News.
The massive shift comes as a previous UNH 2028 presidential nomination survey conducted in February indicated Vance topping Rubio 53% to 7%.
While Vance remains the clear hypothetical frontrunner in most polls, Rubio has narrowed the gap in national polls and surveys conducted in key early-voting presidential primary states ahead of a race that is not expected to begin in full until after this autumn’s midterm elections.
Rubio’s rise in the 2028 polls this year comes amid an increase in his responsibilities and public profile, including his role in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ongoing war against Iran.
Rubio, who was one of more than a dozen Republican contenders who ran and lost to Trump in the 2016 presidential primary, came in a close second to Vance earlier this year in the closely watched 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who ran for the nomination in 2016 and is mulling another bid, stood a distant third at 8% in the new UNH survey, along with former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was the runner-up to Trump in 2024.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also bid for the nomination in 2024, grabbed 6% support, with everyone else tested at 4% or less.
“There’s nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense,” New Hampshire-based Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, told Fox News, referring to Vance and Rubio.
The latest surveys and straw poll results are fueling speculation over what some in the Republican Party see as a budding rivalry between Rubio and Vance, who describe each other as friends.
Partially fueling Rubio’s rise is Trump, who has frequently praised his secretary of state.
The president earlier this year declared that Rubio would go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history.”
Trump has also promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket — calling it “unstoppable” — but has not said who should be at the top of the ticket.
However, Republican sources confirmed to Fox News earlier this year that a group of GOP donors supporting Rubio is quietly exploring ways to boost his political profile.
The move is not sitting well with some close to Vance.
“Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party, and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration,” an operative in Trump’s political orbit told Fox News earlier this year.
“The divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful,” the operative, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, emphasized.
This is an ongoing story. Check back for updates.