He hasn’t been wrong in 32 years. He says Donald J. Trump is going to be elected the next president of the United States.
And he isn’t happy about it.
Dr. Allan Lichtman, who received his PhD from Harvard University and who currently teaches political science at American University, developed a system to predict which candidate voters will choose in November – and he’s been right on every single presidential election since 1984.
Instead of relying on poll numbers or other gimmicks, he analyzes how 13 “keys” favor each party on issues like the economy, peace at home, and foreign policy.
If the American people disapprove of at least six of his keys, the president’s party loses; if not, it wins.
“Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory,” Lichtman told The Washington Post. “Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.”
For one thing, Barack Obama is not running for re-election, and voters usually favor an incumbent.
But what it really comes down to is that Barack Obama’s a lousy president, and Hillary Clinton is a scandal-plagued bore. Obama’s had no major successes in his second term, at home or abroad – losing two more of Lichtman’s keys. The Democrats “got crushed” in the 2014 midterm elections, proving the party is already unpopular.
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And the Democrats’ presidential nominee lacks charisma. “Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt,” Lichtman said.
That’s crushing enough. But by The Horn’s count, Donald Trump is actually smashing Clinton on at least 10 of the 13 conditions. We think Lichtman, a liberal professor, overlooked a few of his own standards:
- Social unrest – Black Lives Matter “protesters” have kicked off a national tour of rioting and looting major urban areas; police officers are being assassinated on our streets over phony allegations of racism; and Islamic terrorist attacks are becoming more violent and more common, even in shopping malls, with three attacks on September 17 alone.
- Scandal – Hillary Clinton is one long, 43-year-long scandal in motion, from being kicked off the Watergate investigation, to helping a child molester get a lighter jail sentence, to Whitewater, to destroying the lives of her husband’s conquests and rape victims, to the Clinton Foundation money laundering scheme, to her homebrew e-mail server, the list never ends.
- Primary contest – We now know that the Democratic primary was rigged. DNC brass worked in cahoots with Hillary to steal the nomination from Bernie Sanders through super-delegates – leaving Sanders delegates angry, even chanting, “Lock her up!” at their own nominee.
- No serious third party candidate to split the GOP vote – Libertarian Gary Johnson has demonstrated bizarre behavior during interviews, sticking his tongue out at MSNBC reporter Kasie Hunt, causing people to wonder if he’s returned to his admitted marijuana use. At any rate, his poll numbers seem headed in the wrong direction.
- Challenger charisma – If everyone on both sides of the aisle can agree on one thing, it’s that Donald Trump oozes charisma. You don’t pack tens of thousands of people into arenas night after night because you’re dull.
It’s not just Dr. Lichtman’s program that makes it look like President Trump may be inaugurated next January. The polls show a neck-and-neck race, with Trump surging in must-win states after taking everything the media can throw at him.
Poll analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com looked at the numbers and said the Democrats should be somewhere between “mild unease and full-blown panic” right now.
If Donald Trump wins Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, he wins the presidency. He’s currently ahead in all three, as well as Nevada.
Hillary Clinton needs to win Colorado to win, and RealClear Politics shows her ahead by six-tenths of one percent.
And all of this has happened before Trump unleashes most of his TV ad campaign, while Hillary Clinton has been blowing her campaign’s war chest on useless and ineffective ads.
This is an unusual presidential election, and Litchman says that could cause things to defy his model. And while Trump is ahead in swing states, he’s within the margin of error.
For all intents and purposes, the two major candidates are tied, in a dead heat. No one should take it for granted that either candidate will win.
But the model favors the Republican – and it’s obvious this infuriates Lichtman, who trashes Trump continually. Somehow, he claimed that Trump – not Clinton – is “the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along,” and has allegedly “incited violence against an opponent,” “invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections,” “threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf” and “embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator.”
If you ever want to know what’s wrong with American higher education, reread this list.
It sounds like Trump doesn’t have the professor’s vote. But even the professor agrees, it probably doesn’t matter.
– The Horn editorial team