If history is any indication, next year’s midterm elections will likely return control of the House of Representatives to the GOP.
But some Republicans aren’t taking any chances.
Politico reports there are plans under way to potentially use redistricting from the 2020 Census in a radical new way to ensure Republicans regain control of the House.
It’s called “cracking up” the cities, or using partisan gerrymandering to split up a blue district into tiny pieces, each of which is folded into a nearby red one that can absorb those Democratic votes without threatening the seat.
Politico said such a move in Louisville, Kentucky would wipe out the state’s lone Democratic seat, currently held by Rep. John Yarmuth.
The website listed at least four other seats that could be “cracked” out of cities – and away from Democrats. Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, Rep. Frank Mrvan of Indiana., Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas, and Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri would all be in danger.
Missouri, Tennessee and Indiana would each have just one Democratic member of the House left if the Republicans pulled off such a plan, and Kansas would have none.
While Nebraska has no Democratic members of the House, they could use that same technique to ensure Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., has an easier time retaining his “purple” district, which includes Omaha.
Democrats are already protesting.
“They couldn’t beat me fairly,” Jim Cooper complained to CNN. “So, now they’re trying to beat me by gerrymandering.”
Gerrymandering has always been part of the game when it comes to Congress, and both parties have taken advantage of it over the years.
But the plan to crack up some cities goes a little too far for some members of the GOP.
Politico notes that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., are urging Republicans to hold back.
“It’s been my experience in studying history that when you get real cute, you end up in a lawsuit — and you lose it. And then the courts redraw the lines,” Comer told Politico. “So my advice would be to keep Louisville blue.”
Another lawmaker said there’s another danger… because a safe-looking map in the coming election might not remain safe for long if they change the lines too much.
“What we don’t want to do is get greedy,” Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn. “And then four years from now as Nashville continues to turn blue, wind up worse off than we are.”
A Republican operative in Missouri came to the same conclusion.
“The challenge there is: four or five of the Republican incumbents would have to take a 3 to 5 percent reduction in the Republican base,” James Harris told Politico. “There’s a scenario where you could have a year where you end up with a 5-3 makeup, as opposed to always a 6-2 map.”
However, the GOP may not need to carry out that extreme scenario to win back the House.
There are other factors in play… including the more traditional form of redistricting, which is also expected to heavily favor Republicans. That advantage alone, according to Reuters, could be enough to swing at least six seats from red to blue – or enough to erase the Democrat advantage and put Republicans in control.
However, Cook Political Report has a more conservative estimate, saying the new maps could yield just three or four seats, which wouldn’t be enough to swing the House on its own.
“Redistricting alone will not deliver House Republicans a majority,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Michael McAdams insisted in a CNN interview. “Which is why we are focused on running competitive campaigns all across the country and making sure voters understand how dangerous Democrats’ socialist agenda is to American families.”
But Republicans do have another ace up the sleeve: history.
The party of the sitting president almost always loses a large number of seats during that first midterm.
Republicans lost 40 during the 2018 midterm under then-President Donald Trump, and Democrats lost 63 during then-President Barack Obama’s first midterm in 2010.
The average since 1946 is 28 seats toward the party that’s not occupying the White House… which would be more than enough for the GOP to take back control.
— Walter W. Murray is a reporter for The Horn News. He is an outspoken conservative and a survival expert.